Since the May-June-July Seasonal Drought Outlook was initially released on April 18, moderate to heavy precipitation brought some improvement to drought areas in much of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes Region, the northern Plains, and the Southwest while deterioration was noted in the Pacific Northwest, part of the northern Rockies, the central Great Plains, and the adjacent Middle Mississippi Valley. Few changes to the initial outlook were required after issuance of the Monthly Drought Outlook for May. The small area of improvement in the central Washington Cascades, and the large area of development on the central Florida Peninsula in the May outlook are not included on the Seasonal Outlook update, since these trends are not expected to persist through the end of July. Adjustments were made in the northern Rockies (improvement or removal introduced based on expected heavy precipitation during early May in some higher elevations), and in the Plains (to adjust for changes in initial drought intensity). Some additional drought development potential was added in southeastern Montana, which is in the May Monthly Drought Outlook but not in the initial May-June-July Seasonal Drought Outlook issued in mid-April).

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since the May-June-July Seasonal Drought Outlook was initially released on April 18, moderate to heavy precipitation brought some improvement to drought areas in much of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes Region, the northern Plains, and the Southwest while deterioration was noted in the Pacific Northwest, part of the northern Rockies, the central Great Plains, and the adjacent Middle Mississippi Valley. Few changes to the initial outlook were required after issuance of the Monthly Drought Outlook for May. The small area of improvement in the central Washington Cascades, and the large area of development on the central Florida Peninsula in the May outlook are not included on the Seasonal Outlook update, since these trends are not expected to persist through the end of July. Adjustments were made in the northern Rockies (improvement or removal introduced based on expected heavy precipitation during early May in some higher elevations), and in the Plains (to adjust for changes in initial drought intensity). Some additional drought development potential was added in southeastern Montana, which is in the May Monthly Drought Outlook but not in the initial May-June-July Seasonal Drought Outlook issued in mid-April).

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Since the May-July Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) released in mid-April, marked improvements to drought conditions have occurred across central parts of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and parts of the Southwest. However, several locations did miss out on meaningful precipitation, especially across western portions of the Central Plains, where moderate to severe drought developed in parts of southeastern Colorado, central and western Kansas, and southwestern Texas. Pockets of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions have also developed and/or expanded across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the Florida Peninsula, Northern High Plains, and the Pacific Northwest. Nonetheless, soil moisture conditions are predominantly in decent shape across much of the CONUS as we head into the warmest months of the year.



Looking forward to the June-July-August (JJA) SDO, drought removal is forecast from the Central Plains eastward to the Eastern Seaboard, with favorable precipitation outlooks and neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions likely through most of the season. Drought improvement and removal are also favored across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, due in large part to it being climatologically the wettest time of year. For the western Great Plains and Intermountain West, widespread drought persistence is likely, with above normal soil moisture and predominantly near to above normal snowpack at the onset of the JJA period offset by warm and dry conditions being favored overall during the season. Drought development is forecast across portions of the southwestern CONUS, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies, where soil moisture conditions, especially near the surface, are trending drier leading up to the onset of the forecast period. Uncertainty remains greatest across portions of the Southwest, given the historical onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM) in late-June and into July. However, given the sporadic nature of thunderstorm activity during the NAM season, areas not seeing precipitation will likely experience degrading or expanding drought conditions.



Drought development is forecast in the southeastern Alaska Panhandle, due to antecedent dryness, below normal snowpack, and unfavorable temperature outlooks for June and JJA. In Hawaii, drought persistence and development are likely, given the antecedent dryness, JJA being a very dry time of year, and the potential for ENSO to transition toward La Niña conditions (i.e. colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific) toward the end of August. Conversely, antecedent wet conditions, very wet precipitation outlooks for June and JJA, and the potential for tropical activity are likely to keep Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) drought-free through the end of August.



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 20, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion