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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2024
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island) have predominantly been close to the 30-year climatological average during the past few weeks. From time to time, below-average SSTs have appeared near the Big Island, but periods of near-average SSTs have been of longer duration.
From January through April 2024, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 17.55 inches (125 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 4.58 inches (66 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 8.36 inches (100 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 38.19 inches (95 percent of average)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) generally predict near-average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through June 2024. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are favored to be Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal for all the islands through June. However, it is noteworthy that approximately half of the C3S (also known as the International Multi-Model Ensemble or Copernicus) inputs favor above-normal temperatures for the northwestern Islands of Kauai and Oahu. For the June 2024 precipitation outlook, below-normal precipitation chances are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with the last vestiges of El Nino over the tropical Pacific. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | EC | 75.4 | 0.4 | | B50 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 8.7 |
| Kahului | EC | 78.0 | 0.5 | | B45 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Honolulu | EC | 80.3 | 0.4 | | B45 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Lihue | EC | 78.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2024 - JJA 2025 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. El Nino conditions continue to linger across the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean, where equatorial SSTs are still above average (though in a shallow surface layer). Below average SSTs now prevail over the eastern and east-central Pacific, from the surface down to 100-150 meters. This relatively cool subsurface water extends westward to near the Date Line, and is bounded above by a shallow surface layer of relatively warm SSTs. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were near average. Tropical convection and precipitation was near average across the Pacific and Indonesia, consistent with the ongoing transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral. This transition is likely to wrap up in the next month. There is a 49% chance of a La Nina developing within the JJA (June-July-August) season, and a 69% chance of La Nina developing within the JAS (July-August-September) season.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for Lihue, and Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are forecast for Honolulu, Kahului and the Big Island in JJA 2024, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, C3S, and the Constructed Analog (CA) tool. For JAS, EC is still favored for the Big Island and Kahului, with above normal temperatures indicated for the remainder of the chain. By ASO, above normal temperatures are forecast for all Islands, which continues into OND based on the same set of models and tools. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore EC is indicated for Hawaii beginning in NDJ (November-December-January) 2024-25 and extending through longer leads.
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from JJA 2024 to OND (October-November-December) 2024, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in NDJ 2024-25 and continuing through longer leads. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JJA 2024 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | B60 | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | B60 | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2024 | A40 | 76.4 | 0.4 | B60 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2024 | A40 | 76.2 | 0.4 | B50 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2024 | A40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | B40 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2024 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JJA 2024 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | B60 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | B60 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2024 | A40 | 79.4 | 0.4 | B55 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2024 | A50 | 79.1 | 0.4 | B50 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2024 | A50 | 77.8 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2024 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JJA 2024 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | B60 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2024 | A40 | 81.3 | 0.4 | B50 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2024 | A50 | 81.7 | 0.4 | B50 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2024 | A55 | 81.4 | 0.4 | B45 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2024 | A55 | 80.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2024 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JJA 2024 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | B60 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2024 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.3 | B50 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2024 | A50 | 79.4 | 0.3 | B50 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2024 | A55 | 79.1 | 0.3 | B45 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2024 | A60 | 77.8 | 0.3 | B40 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2024 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jun 20, 2024. |
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