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HOME > Outlooks > Monthly to Seasonal Outlooks > Probability of Exceedance Forecast > Probability of Exceedance Outlook
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This experimental outlook product gives the probability that a temperature or precipitation quantity will be exceeded at the location in question, for the given season at the given lead time. The locations are one of 102 forecast divisions in the mainland U.S., or an individual station in other regions.

Outlook for Forecast Divisions
Outlook for Major U.S. Cities

CAVEAT EMPTOR: This product provides forecasts for seasonal temperature in actual degrees F, precipitation in inches, and degree days in numbers of degree days. All of the forecasts, however, have large uncertainties. In some cases uncertainties are gigantic, while in other cases they are only moderately large. Here at NWS/NCEP/CPC, we have tried to quantify these varying uncertainties to the best of our ability, using expressions of probability. We assume that users will hedge their decisions accordingly. It is the responsibility of the user to examine the product and its accuracy to their own satisfaction. CPC shall not accept responsibility for the consequences of using these forecasts.


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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: December 13, 2005
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