canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific
(Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and
Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs.
F1 and F2. This forecast
is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
. The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a,
from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al.
2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs.
F7 and F8.
Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993:
J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9
and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max
Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and
Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in
Niņo 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13,
provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and
the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this
predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
are expected during the next 3-6 months.
surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased throughout
the eastern equatorial Pacific during June (Figs. T9
and T18, Table T2). By
the end of the month, positive equatorial
SST anomalies were observed in most areas between
Indonesia and 90°W, while negative anomalies persisted along the South
American coast (Fig. T9).
increase in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during June was
reflected in an increase in the departures in the Niņo 3 and Niņo 3.4
regions (Table T2, Fig. T5).
The increase in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific was
consistent with weaker-than-normal low-level equatorial easterlies over the
T20). However, the overall pattern of tropical convection
was near average (Fig.
T25). During June there was very little week-to-week variation in circulation
features, as the MJO became inactive (Figs. T11 and T12).
Consistent with recent atmospheric and
oceanic conditions, a majority of the statistical and
coupled model forecasts
F2, F3, F4a,
F4b, F5, F6,
F7, F8, F9,
F10, F11, F12
indicate that SST anomalies will likely remain positive
during the next 3-6 months, but still
within the ENSO-neutral range. Thus,
it is most likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue during the
remainder of the NH summer and fall.
updates of SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface
thermal structure are available on the