Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region
Cecile Penland, NOAA/CDC
Predictions of Nino 3.4 SSTA (blue solid line) and verification
(solid red line). The Nino 3.44 Index was calculated in the area
6N-6S, 170W-120W. The 1981-2010 climatology was sub-
tracted from ERSST data between 1950 and 2010, after which
they were projected onto 20 EOFs containing 90% of the
variance. Significant 1950-2010 trends were subtracted from
the corresponding PCs, the forecast was made on the detrended
anomalies, after which the trend was added to the forecast.
The dotted lines indicate the one standard deviation confidence interval for the forecasts based on a perfect adherence to assumptions.