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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10


NCEP Markov Model Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region

FEBRUARY 2024

FIGURE F6.  Time evolution of observed and predicted SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (up to 12 lead months) by the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871). Anomalies are calculated relative to the 1971-2000 climatology. Shown in each panel are the forecasts grouped by three consecutive starting months: (a) is for December, January, and February, (b) is for March, April, and May, (c) is for June, July, and August, and (d) is for September, October, and November. The observed Nino 3.4 SST anomalies are indicated by the black dashed lines. The Nino 3.4 region spans the east-central equatorial Pacific between 5N-5S, 170W-120W.


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