OUTLOOK

CPC PRESENTS THIS EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PUERTO RICO & US VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2006 THROUGH MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2006

STS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WERE BETWEEN .5 AND 1.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 160E TO 110W... AND AVERAGED AROUND .5 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE EQUATOR REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW NORMAL... SUGGESTING THAT THE ENSO STATE CAN BEST BE CLASSIFIED AS A WEAK LA NINA AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC... INCLUDING INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... INDICATING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO THE WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS IN TYPICAL FASHION. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD... AND ENSO CONDITIONS IN THE SUMMER WILL BE NEUTRAL... ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS ISSUED IN THE LATE FALL HAD INDICATED. SSTS IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO & US VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE CLOSE TO LONG TERM AVERAGES... SSTS ARE BETWEEN ZERO AND ONE-HALF DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS... WHILE SSTS FROM JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO TO FLORIDA AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL

THE FORECAST MAP SHOWS LONG-LEAD PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS, AND THEIR EXPECTED SKILLS, OUT TO ONE YEAR INTO THE FUTURE FOR SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO. GRANARD (ST. CROX, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS),WINTBERG (ST. THOMAS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS),CRUZ BAY (ST. JOHN, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS). THE BARS INDICATE THE FORECAST VALUES (AS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES) AND THE LINES INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED SKILLS (AS CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS). BOTH FORECASTS AND SKILLS USE THE SAME ORDINATE SCALE. THE TARGET SEASON IS INDICATED ON THE ABSCISSA, RANGING FROM 1 (MAM 2006) THROUGH 13 (MAM 2007); SEE THE LEGEND AT TOP.

FOR GRANARD (ST. CROIX, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS) - THE SKILL OF THE RELATIONSHIP TOGETHER WITH THE LOW MAGNITUDE OF FORECAST ANOMALIES INDICATED CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATIONS AT ALL LEAD TIMES.

FOR WINTBERG (ST. THOMAS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS) - ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MJJ AND JAS 2006. NEIGHBORING ISLANDS ALSO SHOW SKILLFUL SIGNALS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER OF 2006.

FOR CRUZ BAY (ST. JOHN, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS) - ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FROM AMJ 2006 THROUGH JAS 2006 - NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ASO 2006 THROUGH SON 2006.

FOR SAN JUAN (PUERTO RICO) - ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FROM AMJ 2006 THROUGH FMA 2007... WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FROM AMJ THROUGH JAS 2006