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HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
August 11, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific during July (Fig. 1, bottom). By early August, equatorial SSTs were near average in most areas between 180°W and the South American coast, while positive anomalies persisted between Indonesia and 180°W (Fig. 1, top). The decrease in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during July was reflected by a decrease in the SST departures in the Niņo 3, Niņo 3.4, and Niņo 4 regions (Fig. 2). By the end of July the patterns of tropical convection, atmospheric circulation, SST and subsurface ocean temperatures were near average, indicating ENSO-neutral conditions.

The large range (weak La Niņa to weak El Niņo) in the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig. 3) indicates considerable uncertainty. However, current conditions and recent trends support the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6 months.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

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Page last modified: August 11, 2005
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