|
Expert Assessments
About Us
Contact Us
|
|
|
HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
|
|
|
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO)
|
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
|
issued by |
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
|
October 6, 2005 |
|
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru) |
|
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during
the next 3-6 months.
By the
end of September, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were
found between 160ºE and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC
were observed at most locations between 130ºW and the South American coast (Fig.
1). The SST departures in the Niño 3,and Niño
1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in
the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). During the last three months surface and subsurface temperature
anomalies decreased, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while.
atmospheric conditions (low-level winds, convection and sea level pressure)
remained near average over most of the tropical Pacific.
The large spread of the most recent
statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño)
indicates considerable uncertainty (Fig. 3). However, current conditions and
recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for
the next 3-6 months.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for
SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate
Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
10 November 2005. To receive
an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
|
|
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
|
|
|