PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU JANUARY 20 2005 . . . . . . . . SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WEAK WARM EPISODE CONDITIONS (EL NINO) CONTINUE OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO SPRING. SSTS NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE JUST OVER 1 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THOSE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CURRENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT .5 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THESE SST ANOMALIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A WEAK EL NINO EVENT... THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE SSTS SO FAR THIS SEASON. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... THIS EL NINO SHOULD HAVE ONLY A VERY LIMITED INFLUENCE ON THE U.S. CLIMATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COOL SEASON. CENTRAL PACIFIC EL NINOS IN THE PAST SUCH AS IN 1963-64, 1968-69 AND 2002-03 HAVE A MUCH LESS RELIABLE SIGNAL THAN BASIN-WIDE EL NINOS WHERE WARM SSTS EXTEND TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE U.S. TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO CENTRAL PACIFIC EL NINOS IS USUALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CALIFORNIA IN EARLY JANUARY IS THE RESULT OF UNUSUAL CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE NOT TYPICAL OF EL NINOS. EARLY JANUARY PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OBSERVED IN FLORIDA AND THE OHIO VALLEY ARE OPPOSITE OF THE USUAL EL NINO SIGNALS... FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY ARE DUE TO UNUSUAL CIRCULATION PATTERNS UNRELATED TO EL NINO. . . . . . . . . SOME EL NINO-RELATED INFLUENCE ON U.S. CLIMATE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING... SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE ODDS OF EL NINO IMPACTS IN THE LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS FOR FMA AND MAM 2005. FOR LEAD TIME BEYOND MAM 2005 THE OUTLOOK PRIMARILY REFLECTS LONG TERM TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. . . . . . . . . THE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2005 THROUGH MJJ 2005 IS BASED ON THE CFS MODEL FROM NCEP... THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... CCA ... OCN AND TREND ADJUSTED ENSO COMPOSITES FROM CPC. OCN IS THE PRIMARY TOOL FOR JJA 2005 TO FMA 2006. IN GENERAL CHANGES FROM THE OUTLOOK ISSUED ONE MONTH AGO ARE SMALL. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ON ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ESPECIALLY IN ARIZONA ... WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR EXTENDING THIS AREA WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD TO TEXAS. TOOLS DIFFER ON THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THE CFS SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA... IN OPPOSITION TO MOST STATISTICAL TOOLS AND TO ENSO COMPOSITES. BOTH THE CFS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS PREDICT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEST... WITH MIXED SIGNALS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EXCEPT IN TEXAS WHERE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR MAM 2005 AND BEYOND THE FORECAST REFLECTS MAINLY TRENDS TOWARDS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEST IN THE LATE SPRING... AND OVER THOSE REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN SUMMER... AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN THE FALL. . . . . . . . . THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FAVORS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. FROM AMJ 2005 THROUGH NDJ 2005 THE OUTLOOK REFLECTS PRECIPITATION TRENDS... WHICH ARE GENERALLY MODEST. . . . . . . . . BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS NOW EXIST IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE NOAA DEFINITION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS REQUIRES THAT 3-MONTH RUNNING MEAN SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION - BETWEEN 120W TO 170W AND WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE EQUATOR - EXCEED +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE JAS 2004. THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY MEAN SHOWS SSTS MORE THAN 1 C ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN ABOUT 160E AND 160W. SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR EAST OF 160W ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN .5 AND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL... EXCEPT JUST OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST WHERE SSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FROM THE NEW CFS MODEL PREDICT THAT SEASONAL MEAN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE FROM THE MOST RECENT THREE MONTH AVERAGE OF ABOUT +.9 C TO NEAR ZERO BY JJA 2005. STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS FROM CCA... CA... AND THE MARKOV MODEL KEEP NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES ABOVE ZERO... WITH CCA THE WARMEST TOOL... PREDICTING SSTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO JUST OVER 1 DEG C BY SUMMER. THE CA AND MARKOV TOOLS PREDICT SSTS TO DECREASE SLOWLY TO JUST UNDER +.5 C BY SUMMER. A CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL NINO 3.4 SST FORECASTS INDICATES THE NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT LOWER THROUGH THE SPRING TO ABOUT +.3 C BY JJA 2005 AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2005 THROUGH MJJ 2005 IS BASED ON THE CFS MODEL FROM NCEP... THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... CCA... AND OCN. OCN IS THE PRIMARY TOOL FOR JJA 2005-FMA 2006. CHANGES FROM THE OUTLOOK ISSUED ONE MONTH AGO ARE MINOR. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2005 TO FMA 2006 TEMPERATURE: FOR FMA THROUGH MJJ 2005 THE FORECAST TOOLS VERY CONSISTENTLY PREDICT AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN U.S AND ALASKA. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FMA 2005 OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE GREAT BASIN WERE REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH FORECASTS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION... AND BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A COOL START TO THE SEASON IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS INDICATED IN THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK. ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR FMA TO AMJ 2005 NEAR TEXAS ACCORDING TO NEARLY ALL TOOLS. THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR FMA 2005 HAS BEEN REDUCED TO REFLECT LESS SUPPORT FROM THE CFS AND OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MAM AND AMJ THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO REFLECT THE WEAK SUPPORT FROM THIS MONTHS TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RESTRICED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... JUSTIFIED BY OCN. OCN GIVES STRONG INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN FMA 2006 FOR ALASKA... PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN WEAK SIGNALS IN DJF AND JFM... SO LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA WAS REVISED TO INCLUDE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN DJF AND JFM 2005-06. . . . . . . . . PRECIPITATION: TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST... INCLUDING ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATON FROM CALIFORNIA... ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA... WITH THE CFS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOST STATISTICAL TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. WITH NO CONSENSUS FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF... WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK. CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE SIMILARLY BEEN REDUCED IN VIEW OF THE WEAK ENSO CONDITIONS. FROM AMJ 2005 THROUGH FMA 2006... OCN... CCA AND SMLR GIVE MAINLY WEAK INDICATIONS FOR ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF DRYNESS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR JJA THROUGH ASO 2005. OCN SHOWS INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM ASO TO SON 2005... AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. FROM OND 2005 TO DJF 2005-06. NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). . . . . . . . . FORECASTER: D. UNGER GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS: ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING COMPARED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NOT EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANNUAL CYCLE - AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLIMATE STATE VARIABLES - T - P - SST- WIND - AND OTHERS DISPLAY A REGULAR VARIATION WHICH FOLLOWS THAT OF THE ELEVATION OF THE SUN IN THE SKY. A GRAPH OF THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE FOR EACH DAY OF THE YEAR VERSUS DATE SHOWS A WAVE-FORM WHICH - FOR T AT DES MOINES FOR EXAMPLE - RANGES SMOOTHLY FROM LOWEST VALUES IN THE WINTER TO HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SUMMER. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (USUALLY 30 YEARS) FOR THE LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE (AT SEA LEVEL) OR 500-HPA HEIGHT (IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE) BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR REGION AND MIDDLE LATITUDES. WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL AT HIGH LATITUDES AND BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL AT MIDDLE LATITUDES - THE AO IS DEFINED AS NEGATIVE (POSITIVE) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MIDDLE LATITUDES - INCLUDING THE CONUS. CA - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG - A LINEAR COMBINATION OF PAST OBSERVED ANOMALY PATTERNS SUCH THAT THE COMBINATION IS AS CLOSE AS DESIRED TO THE INITIAL STATE. A FORECAST IS OBTAINED BY PERSISTING THE WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO EACH YEAR IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD AND LINEARLY COMBINING THE STATES FOLLOWING THE INITIAL TIME IN THE HISTORICAL YEARS. CAS - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE PREDICTION TECHNIQUE. CCA - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS - A TECHNIQUE WHICH PREDICTS THE STATUS OF U.S. T AND P FOR SOME FUTURE TARGET SEASON USING THE MOST RECENT 4 NON- OVERLAPPING SEASONAL OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST - CIRCULATION AND U.S. T OR P TO CHARACTERIZE THE RECENT BEHAVIOR OF THE CLIMATE - AND PAST OBSERVATIONS TO PLACE RECENT BEHAVIOR INTO A HISTORICAL CONTEXT. CLIMATOLOGY - THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE - LIKE TEMPERATURE - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. . . . . . . . . CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES DYNAMICAL MODEL - A PREDICTION METHOD WHICH USES EQUATIONS DESCRIBING THE PHYSICAL BEHAVIOR OF A SYSTEM AND A COMPREHENSIVE SET OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE VALUES OF THE VARIABLES DESCRIBING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM (INITIAL CONDITIONS) TO PREDICT THE VALUES OF THOSE VARIABLES A SHORT TIME-STEP IN THE FUTURE. THOSE VALUES ARE - IN TURN - USED AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR A SUBSEQUENT PREDICTION - AND SO ON - UNTIL THE DESIRED FUTURE PREDICTION TIME IS REACHED. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. EC - EQUAL CHANCES - THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED AND THE EXPECTED LIKELIHOODS OF ABOVE - NORMAL AND BELOW DO NOT DIFFER FROM THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF 33 1/3% EACH. EC REPLACES CL. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE ENSO - ACRONYM FOR EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION GCM - GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL - A GENERIC TERM APPLIED TO GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. ITCZ - INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - A LINE WHERE THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONVERGE - CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED CONVECTION. IT MAY BE IN EITHER THE NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - AND OCCASIONALLY A DOUBLE ITCZ MAY BE SEEN IN BOTH HEMISPHERES NOT FAR FROM THE EQUATOR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A DISTURBANCE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION - PRECIPITATION - WIND AND PRESSURE. MJO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ARE ENHANCED ONLY IN REGIONS WHERE SSTS ARE VERY WARM - E.G. INDIAN OCEAN AND WEST PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE AND WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH MJO IS OBSERVED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST COMPLETELY AROUND THE GLOBAL TROPICS IN ABOUT 30 TO 60 DAYS. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN - WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO. NOTE THAT THE STATUS OF THE AO/NAO AND OTHER SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULATION MODES - WHILE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES OVER THE U.S. - ARE UNPREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO AHEAD AT BEST BY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY AND ARE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN OUR FORECAST PROCESS AS RELIABLE PREDICTORS. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. QBO - QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION - AN OSCILLATION OF THE WIND IN THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE BETWEEN EASTERLY AND WESTERLY WHICH REVERSES ON A NEARLY- 2 YEAR TIME SCALE. QBO IS ONE OF THE MOST REGULAR OSCILLATIONS KNOWN. SMLR - SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION - A TECHNIQUE WHICH SELECTS THE BEST SET OF PREDICTORS - FITTING THEM TO THE OBSERVATIONS TO CREATE EQUATIONS WHICH CAN BE USED TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS - PREDICTIONS BASED MAINLY ON LARGE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS. CCA - OCN - SMLR - CAS - CA ARE EXAMPLES OF THESE. TELECONNECTIONS - THESE GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS OVER A LARGE AREA - LIKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - FOR A GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR. THE POINTS ON THE MAP USUALLY CONSIST OF A SET OF MORE OR LESS EVENLY SPACED LOCATIONS CALLED GRID POINTS. TREND - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF THE MOST RECENT 10 (15) YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS OF T (P) AND THE CLIMATOLOGY. WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL - AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMULATION AND SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON FEBRUARY 17 2005. 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE. $$