PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 NON-TECHNICAL 0.5 MONTH LEAD FORECAST SUMMARY . . . . . . . . THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE SEASONAL FORECASTS INCLUDE 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA – WHICH TOGETHER MAKE UP EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO – 2) TRENDS – 3) TROPICAL 30-60-DAY OSCILLATION- WHICH MAY AFFECT CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN A SEASON 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION OR NAO AND 5) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER IN THE WINTER. TROPICAL INFLUENCES – INCLUDING ENSO AND TROPICAL 30-60-DAY OSCILLATIONS ARE CURRENTLY NEUTRAL OR WEAK AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE CLIMATE IN THE NEAR-TERM. TRENDS ARE USED IN THIS FORECAST. THEIR IMPACTS ARE ESPECIALLY LARGE IN FORECAST LEADS BEYOND 0.5 MONTHS. THE IMPACT OF THE NAO THIS WINTER IS UNCERTAIN FOR AT LEAST TWO REASONS. FIRST- THE NAO IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS NEUTRAL PHASE. ALSO – WE ARE CURRENTLY ABLE TO PREDICT ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NAO. RESEARCH IS BEING CONDUCTED WITH THE AIM OF IMPROVING THE USE FOR PREDICTION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2005-06 CALLS FOR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES- INCLUDING ALASKA AND HAWAII. THE GREAT PLAINS - MIDWEST- THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE EAST COAST HAVE EQUAL CHANCES OF WARMER-THAN... COOLER-THAN OR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NDJ CALLS FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS WINTER APPROACHES, NEARLY 20 PERCENT OF THE NATION IS IN SOME LEVEL OF DROUGHT COMPARED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY THIS TIME LAST YEAR AS DEFINED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. FOR THE SIXTH YEAR IN A ROW- DROUGHT REMAINS A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WET OR DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE WINTER TYPICALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINTER-SPRING SNOW PACK IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT IN THE WEST- AS MUCH OF THE ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY COMES FROM THE SPRINGTIME SNOW MELT. IT WOULD TAKE A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER SNOWSTORMS TO END THE CURRENT DROUGHT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS PACIFIC SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR WERE GENERALLY NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE DURING LATE SEPTEMBER AND THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER - WITH THE WARMEST SSTS AND LARGEST DEPARTURES OBSERVED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. EQUATORIAL SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND 1-2 DEGREES CELSIUS BELOW AVERAGE AT DEPTHS OF 50-100 M BELOW THE SURFACE BETWEEN 120W AND 95W. ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND SUGGEST... TOGETHER WITH THE OCEAN STATE ... THAT NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 6-9 MONTHS. AN AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PRESENT FOR MORE THAN A YEAR...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION AND WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL MODELS USED AT CPC SHOWS SEASONAL MEAN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH THE WINTER AND THE SPRING. SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL TOOLS HAS DECREASED IN RECENT MONTHS...WITH MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE FORECASTS FALLING IN THE NEUTRAL RANGE...-0.5C TO +0.5C. THUS THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT SSTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY 2006. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE OUTLOOK FOR NDJ 2005 THROUGH AMJ 2006 IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FROM IRI... THE CFS... AND STATISTICAL TOOLS... INCLUDING CCA... SMLR AND OCN. INPUT FROM CDC MODELS - WHICH FAVORS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION - WAS CONSULTED. ECCA WAS USED FOR NDJ. OCN IS THE PRIMARY TOOL EXPLICITLY USED FROM MJJ THROUGH NDJ 2006. SINCE THE EXTREME PHASES OF ENSO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT...ALL FORECASTS REFLECT INTERDECADAL TREND MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR. A NEW FORECAST TOOL HAS BEEN DEVELOPED WHICH COMBINES THE CCA - THE OCN - THE SMLR AND A 15-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE CFS - USING THE KNOWN SKILL OF THE VARIOUS TOOLS TO FORM A WEIGHTED AVERAGE. THIS TOOL - CALLED CON - HELPS TO REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH FORECASTERS CONFRONT WHEN THEY TRY TO SUBJECTIVELY COMBINE FORECAST TOOLS. CON HAS BEEN USED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THIS TIME. VERIFICATION OF CON FOR FORECASTS FROM THE 1995-2005 PERIOD INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD IMPROVE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THE CONUS. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM CON HAVE NOT YET BEEN VERIFIED AND IT IS - THEREFORE - USED MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVELY THAN IT IS FOR TEMPERATURE. . . . . . . . . PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2005 TO NDJ 2006 TEMPERATURE: THERE ARE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH FOR THE NDJ 2005 FORECAST. THE PROBABLILITIES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA COVERAGE FOR THE US AS A WHOLE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THE REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA IS UNCHANGED. THE WEAKENING OF THE PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS DUE TO SOME INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IT MIGHT NOT BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK TREND INDICATIONS FROM THE STATISTICAL TOOLS. DURING THE WINTER SEASONS...MODIFICATIONS INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN THE COVERAGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING DJF AND JFM. THESE CHANGES REFLECT THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL PHASE OF THE NAO DURING THE WINTER AS WELL AS CONFLICTS BETWEEN OCN - WHICH FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDWEST - AND INPUT FROM THE IRI - WHICH FAVORS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THAT REGION. . . . . . . . . PRECIPITATION: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTHS FORECASTS ARE LESS EXTENSIVE FOR PRECIPITATION THAN THEY WERE FOR TEMPERATURE. FOR NDJ - THE FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THAT ISSUED LAST MONTH. HOWEVER...THE TOOLS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN SUPPORTING EITHER THE DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST OR THE WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS INDICATED FOR THE ARKLATEX REGION. SUPPORT FOR DRYNESS IN THE SOUTHWEST COMES MAINLY FROM THE ECCA - WHILE WETNESS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION IS SUPPORTED BY CON BUT NOT BY ECCA. THE IRI TOOL WEAKLY SUPPORTS DRYNESS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE US EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE AREA OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST IS DROPPED IN THE FORECASTS FOR DJF 2005-2006 DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE CON (WET) AND THE IRI (DRY). IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE CON INDICATES SMALL AREAS OF WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING NDJ AND DJF...IMPLYING ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON THE VERY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 2C ABOVE AVERAGE)AND SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). . . . . . . . . FORECASTER: V. KOUSKY GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS: ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING COMPARED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NOT EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANNUAL CYCLE - AT MOST LOCATIONS THE CLIMATE STATE VARIABLES - T - P - SST- WIND - AND OTHERS DISPLAY A REGULAR VARIATION WHICH FOLLOWS THAT OF THE ELEVATION OF THE SUN IN THE SKY. A GRAPH OF THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE FOR EACH DAY OF THE YEAR VERSUS DATE SHOWS A WAVE-FORM WHICH - FOR T AT DES MOINES FOR EXAMPLE - RANGES SMOOTHLY FROM LOWEST VALUES IN THE WINTER TO HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SUMMER. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (USUALLY 30 YEARS) FOR THE LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE (AT SEA LEVEL) OR 500-HPA HEIGHT (IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE) BETWEEN THE NORTHERN POLAR REGION AND MIDDLE LATITUDES. WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL AT HIGH LATITUDES AND BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL AT MIDDLE LATITUDES - THE AO IS DEFINED AS NEGATIVE (POSITIVE) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MIDDLE LATITUDES - INCLUDING THE CONUS. CA - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG - A LINEAR COMBINATION OF PAST OBSERVED ANOMALY PATTERNS SUCH THAT THE COMBINATION IS AS CLOSE AS DESIRED TO THE INITIAL STATE. A FORECAST IS OBTAINED BY PERSISTING THE WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO EACH YEAR IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD AND LINEARLY COMBINING THE STATES FOLLOWING THE INITIAL TIME IN THE HISTORICAL YEARS. CAS - CONSTRUCTED ANALOG SOIL MOISTURE PREDICTION TECHNIQUE. CCA - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS - A TECHNIQUE WHICH PREDICTS THE STATUS OF U.S. T AND P FOR SOME FUTURE TARGET SEASON USING THE MOST RECENT 4 NON- OVERLAPPING SEASONAL OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST - CIRCULATION AND U.S. T OR P TO CHARACTERIZE THE RECENT BEHAVIOR OF THE CLIMATE - AND PAST OBSERVATIONS TO PLACE RECENT BEHAVIOR INTO A HISTORICAL CONTEXT. CFS - CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM - A FULLY-COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FORECAST SYSTEM WHICH USES NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FLUXES IN POST- PROCESSING (A ONE-TIER SYSTEM) DEVELOPED AT THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION. CLIMATOLOGY - THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE OF A VARIABLE - LIKE TEMPERATURE - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR. CON - A FORECAST TOOL WHICH COMBINES THE CCA - THE OCN - THE SMLR AND A 15-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE CFS - USING THE KNOWN SKILL OF THE VARIOUS TOOLS TO FORM A WEIGHTED AVERAGE. THIS TOOL HELPS TO REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH FORECASTERS CONFRONT WHEN THEY TRY TO SUBJECTIVELY COMBINE FORECAST TOOLS. CON HAS BEEN USED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THIS TIME. VERIFICATION OF CON FOR FORECASTS FROM THE 1995-2005 PERIOD INDICATES THAT IT IMPROVES TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THE CONUS. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM CON HAVE NOT YET BEEN VERIFIED AND IT IS - THEREFORE - USED MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVELY THAN IT IS FOR TEMPERATURE. . . . . . . . . CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES DYNAMICAL MODEL - A PREDICTION METHOD WHICH USES EQUATIONS DESCRIBING THE PHYSICAL BEHAVIOR OF A SYSTEM AND A COMPREHENSIVE SET OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE VALUES OF THE VARIABLES DESCRIBING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM (INITIAL CONDITIONS) TO PREDICT THE VALUES OF THOSE VARIABLES A SHORT TIME-STEP IN THE FUTURE. THOSE VALUES ARE - IN TURN - USED AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR A SUBSEQUENT PREDICTION - AND SO ON - UNTIL THE DESIRED FUTURE PREDICTION TIME IS REACHED. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. EC - EQUAL CHANCES - THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE DETERMINED AND THE EXPECTED LIKELIHOODS OF ABOVE - NORMAL AND BELOW DO NOT DIFFER FROM THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS OF 33 1/3% EACH. EC REPLACES CL. ECCA - ENSEMBLE CCA. A MULTI-VARIATE STATISTICAL FORECAST BASED ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE CFS MODEL FORECAST USING THE MOST RECENT FORECAST AS THE PREDICTOR. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE ENSO - ACRONYM FOR EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION GCM - GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL - A GENERIC TERM APPLIED TO GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. ITCZ - INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - A LINE WHERE THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONVERGE - CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED CONVECTION. IT MAY BE IN EITHER THE NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE - AND OCCASIONALLY A DOUBLE ITCZ MAY BE SEEN IN BOTH HEMISPHERES NOT FAR FROM THE EQUATOR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION - A DISTURBANCE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION - PRECIPITATION - WIND AND PRESSURE. MJO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ARE ENHANCED ONLY IN REGIONS WHERE SSTS ARE VERY WARM - E.G. INDIAN OCEAN AND WEST PACIFIC. THE PRESSURE AND WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH MJO IS OBSERVED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST COMPLETELY AROUND THE GLOBAL TROPICS IN ABOUT 30 TO 60 DAYS. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN - WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO. NOTE THAT THE STATUS OF THE AO/NAO AND OTHER SLOWLY VARYING CIRCULATION MODES - WHILE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES OVER THE U.S. - ARE UNPREDICTABLE BEYOND A WEEK OR TWO AHEAD AT BEST BY CURRENT TECHNOLOGY AND ARE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN OUR FORECAST PROCESS AS RELIABLE PREDICTORS. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OCN - OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS - A FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTING THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS FOR TEMPERATURE AND THE LAST 15 YEARS FOR PRECIPITATION. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. QBO - QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION - AN OSCILLATION OF THE WIND IN THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE BETWEEN EASTERLY AND WESTERLY WHICH REVERSES ON A NEARLY- 2 YEAR TIME SCALE. QBO IS ONE OF THE MOST REGULAR OSCILLATIONS KNOWN. SMLR - SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION - A TECHNIQUE WHICH SELECTS THE BEST SET OF PREDICTORS - FITTING THEM TO THE OBSERVATIONS TO CREATE EQUATIONS WHICH CAN BE USED TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS - PREDICTIONS BASED MAINLY ON LARGE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS. CCA - OCN - SMLR - CAS - CA ARE EXAMPLES OF THESE. TELECONNECTIONS - THESE GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS OVER A LARGE AREA - LIKE THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - FOR A GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR. THE POINTS ON THE MAP USUALLY CONSIST OF A SET OF MORE OR LESS EVENLY SPACED LOCATIONS CALLED GRID POINTS. TREND - AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF THE MOST RECENT 10 (15) YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS OF T (P) AND THE CLIMATOLOGY. WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL - AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMULATION AND SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON NOV 17 2005. 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE. $$