PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR AUGUST 2009 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 8.94 INCHES (47 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.93 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.57 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 67.18 INCHES (110 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR AUGUST 2009. NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR AUGUST 2009. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A40 76.5 0.4 EC 7.0 8.4 9.4 KAHULUI A40 79.6 0.5 EC 0.3 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A40 81.6 0.5 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A40 79.6 0.4 EC 1.3 1.6 2.0 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR ASO 2009 TO ASO 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. AN EL NINO EVENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED. THE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL TRADE WINDS WERE WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC BASIN - AND CONVECTION BECAME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED OVER INDONESIA. THIS COUPLING OF THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO CONDITIONS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MOST MODELS FORECASTS INDICATE EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2009-10. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM ASO TO OND 2009, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO FMA 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO JFM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2009 A40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 SON 2009 A40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4 OND 2009 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3 NDJ 2009 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7 DJF 2009 B40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9 JFM 2010 B40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4 FMA 2010 B40 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1 MAM 2010 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6 AMJ 2010 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2 MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8 JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6 JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7 ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2009 A40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 SON 2009 A40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3 OND 2009 A40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6 NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2009 B40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7 JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6 FMA 2010 B40 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1 MAM 2010 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8 AMJ 2010 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1 MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3 JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5 ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2009 A40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 SON 2009 A40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9 OND 2009 A40 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4 NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4 DJF 2009 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1 JFM 2010 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0 FMA 2010 B40 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1 MAM 2010 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3 AMJ 2010 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0 JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6 JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0 ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2009 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 SON 2009 A40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9 OND 2009 A40 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2 NDJ 2009 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8 DJF 2009 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7 JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1 FMA 2010 B40 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0 MAM 2010 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4 AMJ 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0 MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0 JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6 JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4 ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU AUG 20, 2009 $$