PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2012 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND NEGATIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND CLOSE TO NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. FOR JANUARY 2012 THROUGH THE END OF MAY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 32.74 INCHES (207 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.49 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.56 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 44.38 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL SSTS CONTINUING INTO THE MONTH OF JULY, WITH ANOMALIES STRONGEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN JULY 2012. NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN JULY 2012. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.2 0.4 B40 7.1 9.5 11.4 KAHULUI B40 79.2 0.4 B40 0.2 0.4 0.5 HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 B40 0.2 0.4 0.5 LIHUE EC 79.2 0.4 B40 1.5 1.7 1.9 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2012 - JAS 2013 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SSTS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOWS ABOVE-AVERAGE SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WERE NEAR AVERAGE AND CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF MODELS PREDICT ENSO-NEUTRAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE JJA SEASON. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT EL NINO TO DEVELOP DURING JAS - WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL AND EL NINO ARE ROUGHLY EQUALLY LIKELY DURING THE LATE NORTHERN SUMMER AND FALL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM JAS TO SON 2012 DUE TO INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL LOCAL SSTS. THE NCEP MODELS SHOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN JAS 2012. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2012 B40 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2012 B40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2012 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2012 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2012 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2013 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2013 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2013 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2013 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2013 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2013 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2013 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2013 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2012 B40 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2012 B40 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2012 B40 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2012 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2012 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2013 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2013 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2013 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2012 EC 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2012 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2012 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2012 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2012 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2013 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2013 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2013 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2013 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2013 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2013 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2013 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2012 EC 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2012 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2012 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2012 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2012 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2013 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2013 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2013 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2013 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 19, 2012. $$