PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2012 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE BETWEEN NEGATIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C AND NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2012 THROUGH THE END OF JULY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 34.10 INCHES (177 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.69 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.09 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 58.80 INCHES (84 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) THAT SSTS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2012. THE NCEP CFS VERSION 2 MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OTHER NMME CLIMATE MODELS IN ITS PREDICTION OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2012. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 76.4 0.5 B40 8.0 9.3 11.0 KAHULUI B40 79.3 0.4 B40 0.1 0.2 0.5 HONOLULU B40 81.8 0.4 B40 0.4 0.6 0.8 LIHUE B40 79.4 0.3 B40 1.7 1.9 2.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2012 - SON 2013 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CLIMATE INDICATORS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ONSET OF EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE LATER PART OF THE YEAR. SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC ARE ALREADY ABOVE THE +0.5 DEGREE C THRESHOLD ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO EVENTS. SST ANOMALIES HAVE TO BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MONTHS, HOWEVER, FOR WIDESPREAD EL NINO CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ANOMALY PATTERNS. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVING SUPPORT TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS. THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FAVOR SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION REACHING A PEAK OF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN +.5 C AND +1.5 C BY OCTOBER, AND THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF 2012. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THIS COOL SEASON. BASED ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO DJF 2012-2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE MAJORITY OF NMME MEMBERS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON 2012 THROUGH JFM 2013. SST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY IN 2013, LEAVING LITTLE PREDICTIVE SIGNAL FOR THE LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2012 B40 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2012 B40 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2012 B40 74.2 0.4 B45 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2013 B40 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2013 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2013 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2013 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2013 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2013 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2013 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2013 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2013 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2013 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2012 B40 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2012 B40 77.8 0.4 B40 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2012 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2013 B40 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2013 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2013 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2013 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2012 B40 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2012 B40 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2012 B40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2013 B40 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2013 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2013 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2013 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2013 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2013 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2013 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2013 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2013 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV SON 2012 B40 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2012 B40 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2012 B40 75.7 0.3 B45 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2013 B40 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2013 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2013 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2013 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 20, 2012. $$