PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2012 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII IN MID-OCTOBER ARE AROUND NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2012 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 35.88 INCHES (153 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.28 INCHES (86 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.64 INCHES (51 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 70.47 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF NORMAL) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT SST ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. SST ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND -1.0 DEGREES C FOR THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AND ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO -0.5 DEGREES DURING NOVEMBER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NCEP CFS VERSION 2 MODEL. THE CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) ALSO PREDICT ANOMALIES OF BETWEEN -0.5 AND -1.0 DEGREES C FOR THE NOVEMBER AVERAGE. THE PERSISTENCE OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII DURING NOVEMBER, 2012. THE NCEP CFS VERSION 2 MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OTHER NMME CLIMATE MODELS IN ITS PREDICTION OF ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII IN NOVEMBER 2012. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 74.4 0.4 B40 8.7 11.4 17.1 KAHULUI B40 76.0 0.6 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6 HONOLULU B35 77.8 0.6 B40 0.9 1.4 2.1 LIHUE B35 75.8 0.5 B40 2.6 3.5 5.5 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2012 - NDJ 2013 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS RELATED TO THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AS WELL AS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA. MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PREDICTION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING COOL SEASON. CURRENT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC HAVE LESSENED IN THE PAST MONTH FROM AROUND +0.5 DEGREES C IN MID-SEPTEMBER TO AROUND +0.3 DEGREES C BY EARLY OCTOBER. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ANOMALY PATTERNS. THESE CURRENT SST AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES TOGETHER WITH THE MOST RECENT SST FORECASTS FROM MOST CLIMATE MODELS NOW SUGGEST NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS FOR THIS WINTER. SEVERAL CLIMATE MODELS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SST ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AT OR ABOVE THE THRESHOLD ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS, SO THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ TO DJF 2012-2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME, EXTENDING TO JFM 2013 FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. THIS SIGNAL COMES MAINLY FROM THE CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS FOR PERSISTING BELOW NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE MAJORITY OF NMME MEMBERS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ THROUGH DJF 2012-2013. THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THIS MONTH THAN ON LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK, REFLECTING THAT THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THAN LAST MONTH. WITH SST ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO BY EARLY IN THE YEAR, EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2012 B40 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2013 B40 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2013 B35 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2013 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2013 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2013 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2013 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2013 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2013 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2013 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2013 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2013 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2012 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2013 B35 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2013 B35 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2013 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2013 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2013 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2012 B40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2013 B35 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2013 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2013 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2013 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2013 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2013 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2013 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2013 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2013 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2013 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2013 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2012 B40 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2013 B35 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2013 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2013 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2013 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2013 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 15, 2012. $$