PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU NOV 15 2012 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DECEMBER 2012 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2012 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 36.20 INCHES (132 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.37 INCHES (73 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.65 INCHES (46 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 73.38 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL) NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL SSTS CONTINUING INTO THE MONTH OF DECEMBER, WITH ANOMALIES STRONGEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN DECEMBER 2012. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN DECEMBER 2012. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B40 72.5 0.4 EC 6.8 10.2 13.6 KAHULUI B40 73.5 0.5 EC 1.9 2.7 3.4 HONOLULU B35 74.9 0.6 EC 0.8 1.3 3.8 LIHUE B35 73.3 0.5 EC 1.8 3.2 5.5 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DJF 2012 - DJF 2013 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ANOMALY PATTERNS. THESE CURRENT SST AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES TOGETHER WITH THE MOST RECENT SST FORECASTS FROM MOST CLIMATE MODELS NOW SUGGEST NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2012-13. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN DJF 2012-2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THIS SIGNAL COMES MAINLY FROM THE CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS FOR PERSISTING BELOW NORMAL SST'S SURROUNDING THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE NMME MODEL GIVES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2013 B40 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2013 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2013 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2013 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2013 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2013 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2013 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2013 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2013 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2013 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2013 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2014 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2013 B40 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2013 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2013 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2013 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2013 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2013 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2013 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2013 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2013 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2013 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2013 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2013 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2013 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2013 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2013 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2013 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2013 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2013 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2014 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 2013 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2013 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2013 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2013 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2013 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2013 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2013 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2014 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 20, 2012. $$