PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2013 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2013 THROUGH THE END OF MAY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 14.80 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.46 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.99 INCHES (74 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 47.04 INCHES (91 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JULY 2013. THE NMME MODEL ALSO GIVES NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN JULY 2013. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO EC 76.2 0.4 EC 7.1 9.5 11.4 KAHULUI EC 79.2 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5 HONOLULU EC 81.4 0.5 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5 LIHUE EC 79.2 0.4 EC 1.5 1.7 1.9 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2013 - JAS 2014 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC - WHILE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES PREDOMINATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. TROPICAL CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. A SMALLER NUMBER OF MODELS (MAINLY STATISTICAL) PREDICT WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS IN SUMMER. OVERALL ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2013. BELOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO SON 2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS. THE NMME MODEL GIVES NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2013 EC 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2013 EC 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2013 EC 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2013 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2014 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2014 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2014 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2014 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2014 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2014 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2014 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2014 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2013 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2014 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2014 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2014 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2014 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2013 EC 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2013 EC 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2013 EC 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2013 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2013 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2014 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2014 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2014 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2014 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2014 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2014 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2014 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2013 EC 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2013 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2014 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2014 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2014 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2014 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 18, 2013. $