PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU DEC 19 2013 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2014 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE START OF 2013 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 31.43 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 12.54 INCHES (90 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.59 INCHES (94 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 81.79INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAIIAN IN JANUARY 2014. THE NMME MODEL PREDICTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII IN JANUARY 2014. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 71.6 0.5 A45 3.1 8.9 11.8 KAHULUI A45 72.1 0.6 A45 1.2 2.3 2.8 HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 A45 0.7 1.1 2.1 LIHUE A45 71.8 0.7 A45 1.3 2.2 4.8 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2014 - JFM 2015 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DUE TO THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF A DOWNWELLING OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BASIN. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2014 NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO AMJ 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR MJJ 2014 AND BEYOND. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO FMA 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION VANISHES FROM NMME IN MAM 2014, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW LITTLE USABLE SKILL FOR MAM 2014 AND BEYOND, LEAVING NO REASON TO FAVOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2014 A45 71.8 0.4 A40 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2014 A45 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2014 A45 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2014 A45 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2014 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2014 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2014 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2014 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2014 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2014 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2014 A45 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2014 A45 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2014 A45 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2014 A45 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2014 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2014 A45 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2014 A45 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2014 A45 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2014 A45 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2014 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2014 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2014 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2014 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2014 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2014 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2014 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2014 A45 72.2 0.4 A40 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2014 A45 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2014 A45 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2014 A45 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2014 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JAN 16, 2014. $$