PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2014 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE. FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 10.40 INCHES (151 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.68 INCHES (86 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.65 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 8.23 INCHES (44 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII IN APRIL 2014. THE NMME PREDICTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII IN APRIL 2014. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 72.6 0.7 A40 7.4 8.9 11.2 KAHULUI A45 74.1 0.6 A40 0.5 0.9 1.3 HONOLULU A45 76.3 0.5 A40 0.3 0.5 0.7 LIHUE A45 74.0 0.6 A40 1.6 1.9 2.8 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2014 - AMJ 2015 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND BELOW-AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPEARED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER WESTERN INDONESIA AND THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2014. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE SSTS ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BY LATE SPRING WITH ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF EL NINO DEVELOPING DURING THE SUMMER OR FALL. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM FROM AMJ TO ASO 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR SON 2014 AND BEYOND. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN AMJ 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION VANISHES FROM NMME IN MJJ 2014, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW LITTLE USABLE SKILL FOR MJJ 2014 AND BEYOND, LEAVING NO REASON TO FAVOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2014 A45 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2014 A45 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2014 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2014 A45 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2014 A40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2014 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2014 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2014 A45 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2014 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2014 A40 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2014 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2014 A45 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2014 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2014 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2014 A45 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2014 A40 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2014 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2014 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2014 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV AMJ 2014 A45 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2014 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2014 A40 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2014 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU APR 17, 2014. $$