PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2014 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 12.98 INCHES (94 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.62 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 12.93 INCHES (148 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 40.33 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII IN JUNE 2014. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN JUNE 2014. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 75.4 0.4 EC 5.3 6.3 8.7 KAHULUI A45 78.0 0.5 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A45 80.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A45 78.1 0.4 EC 1.1 1.3 1.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2014 - JJA 2015 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SST ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. SSTS ARE NOW ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC BASIN - BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN RECENT WEEKS DUE TO THE UPWELLING PHASE OF THE KELVIN WAVE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC - WHILE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY ANOMALIES OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS INDICATE A CONTINUED EVOLUTION TOWARD EL NINO. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT CHANCE OF EL NINO INCREASES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR WITH EXCEEDING 65% DURING SUMMER. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JJA TO OND 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR NDJ 2014 AND BEYOND. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO ASO 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS FROM DJF TO JFM 2015. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2014 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2014 A45 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2014 A45 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2014 A45 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2014 A40 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2014 A45 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2014 A40 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2014 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2014 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2014 A45 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2014 A45 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2014 A45 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2014 A40 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2014 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2014 A45 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2014 A40 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2014 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 19, 2014. $$