PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2014 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 18.92 INCHES (108 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.55 INCHES (135 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 14.25 INCHES (147 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 54.31 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII IN AUGUST 2014. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN AUGUST 2014. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 76.6 0.4 EC 7.6 8.4 10.3 KAHULUI A45 79.8 0.4 EC 0.3 0.5 0.6 HONOLULU A45 82.1 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.4 LIHUE A45 79.7 0.4 EC 1.4 1.8 2.5 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2014 - ASO 2015 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC - WHILE WEAKENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (AVERAGED BETWEEN 180 -100 DEGREE W) HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NOW NEAR ZERO. HOWEVER POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE (< 100M) ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC BASIN - WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AT DEPTH. RAINFALL IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE CHANCE OF EL NINO IS ABOUT 70% DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER AND CLOSE TO 80% DURING THE FALL AND WINTER. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM ASO TO NDJ 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR DJF 2015 AND BEYOND. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM ASO TO SON 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS FROM DJF TO JFM 2015. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2014 A45 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2014 A45 76.2 0.4 A40 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2014 A45 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2014 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2014 B45 79.1 0.4 A40 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2014 A45 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2014 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2014 A45 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2014 A45 81.4 0.4 A40 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2014 A45 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2014 A40 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2014 A45 79.1 0.3 A40 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2014 A45 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2014 A40 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU AUG 21, 2014. $$