PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THURSDAY OCT 16 2014

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2014

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENSO NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS AS OF EARLY OCTOBER, 2014. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ANOMALIES 
IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC ARE CURRENTLY AROUND +0.4 C, WHICH IS 
JUST BELOW THE SST ANOMALIES USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. CONVECTION AND 
WIND ANOMALIES NEAR THE EQUATOR OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE NEAR 
LONG TERM AVERAGES, SUPPORTING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND,  
SSTS NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN 
COAST CONTINUE TO BE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME 
LOCALIZED ANOMALIES OF OVER +1.0 C. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF EL 
NINO CONDITIONS. BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY 
PREDICT THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS 
NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK EL NINO EVENTS. THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE LAGGED 
BEHIND THE PREDICTIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL NINO 3.4 SSTS FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS, 
SO IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE 
TO NEAR +0.9 C IN THE NDJ 2014/15 MEAN, ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE MONTH OF 
NOVEMBER ARE EXPECTED REFLECT AT BEST WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE SST'S ALONG 
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ARE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS, 
TOGETHER WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE EMERGENCE OF WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS 
DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER, MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF EL NINO-LIKE ANOMALY 
PATTERNS IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER, 2014 CALLS FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN 
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND 
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE STATE OF ALASKA. 
THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME FOR 
THIS FORECAST. THE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHER IN 
COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST AND COASTAL ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS 
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE BERING SEA.  

THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED IN PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TEXAS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE 
WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS SIGNAL IS STRONGLY FAVORED BY THE NMME, AND IS ALSO 
INDICATED IN EL NINO COMPOSITES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED 
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN VIEW OF CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM THE CFSV2. ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND PARTS 
OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE CFSV2 AND IMME.  
 
IN AREAS WHERE CLIMATE SIGNALS ARE WEAK SUCH THAT THE LIKELIHOODS OF MONTHLY 
MEAN TEMPERATURES OR MONTHLY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO 
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED.

THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE 
SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE OR MORE DECADES INTO 
EL NINO, NEUTRAL AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN 
COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "COMPOSITES" AND USED AT TIMES TO 
SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST 
RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN 
LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 
1981-2010).
3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - CALLED THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION 
(MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS.
4) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE SIMILAR NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), 
AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE 
ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING BOREAL WINTER AND ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO 
HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY.
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE 
VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN 
REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO.
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE 
COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS 
AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), 
SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), AND 
ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA).
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM 
VERSION 2 (CFS) AND FOR THE ZERO-LEAD UPDATE FORECASTS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS).  AN EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL 
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COMPRISED OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS IS ALSO USED.


FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI OCTOBER 31 2014


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

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