PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY OCT 16 2014 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD (1981-2010). 3) THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT ANOMALY PATTERNS ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN ENSO. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIMESCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE. 9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL-WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF FORECAST TOOLS. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WITH A STILL FAVORED TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IN LATE AUTUMN AND WINTER. A WEAK EL NINO EVENT IS MOST PROBABLE, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF EITHER A LOW-END MODERATE EVENT OR CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2014-15 INDICATES ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, THE FAR WEST, ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER AREAS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. THE NDJ 2014-15 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAIN MOST CONSISTENT WITH AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATE, WHILE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME INDICATORS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO. OBSERVATIONS DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER SHOW POSITIVE SST DEPARTURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BASIN, WITH GREATER THAN +0.5C ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THESE AREAS THERE ARE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1.0C. THE NINO3.4 REGION CONTINUES TO HOVER NEAR +0.4C WITH VALUES OF +0.5C FOR NINO4, +0.6C IN NINO3, AND +0.6C IN NINO1+2. SST ANOMALIES INCREASED IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE LAST MONTH. OCEAN SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW POSITIVE VALUES RANGING FROM +1.0C TO +3.0C FROM THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 METERS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. MOREOVER, POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE ALSO EVIDENT AT A DEPTH FROM 100 - 200 METERS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE. MONTHLY AVERAGED OLR ANOMALIES REMAIN MIXED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES AWAY FROM THE DATE LINE WITH TWO AREAS OFF OF THE EQUATOR SHOWING ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. MONTHLY AVERAGED LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, INDICATING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESPOND OVER THE PACIFIC TO ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS. PERSISTENT, STRONGLY POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SST PATTERN PROJECTS WEAKLY ONTO A POSITIVE PDO. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION, ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER EXTENT HAS ALSO INCREASED IN RECENT WEEKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EURASIA AND IS BEING MONITORED. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT AN EL NINO EVENT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AUTUMN AND PEAK (AS DEFINED BY NINO3.4 ANOMALIES) AS A WEAK EVENT DURING THE WINTER IN MANY FORECASTS AND ALSO ON AVERAGE. THE SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE AS SOME TOOLS PREDICT CONTINUATION OF NINO3.4 ANOMALIES BELOW +0.5C WHILE SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATE EVENT WITH FORECAST ANOMALIES OF GREATER +1.0C. OVERALL THIS MONTH CONTINUES THE SLIGHT TREND SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS OF DECREASING NINO3.4 POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AN INTERESTING POINT THIS MONTH IS ALSO THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PEAK ANY EL NINO EVENT LATER IN THE WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL. WHILE FEW ENSO EVENTS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED, AND CONSIDERED TOGETHER, MODEL FORECASTS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST INDICATING A 60-65% CHANCE OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT IN LATE AUTUMN OR WINTER AND THE OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO CONSIDER EL NINO IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. POSITIVE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SST ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST IN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE BOREAL WINTER BY MANY DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE NMME AND IMME, ALONG WITH THE FORECAST OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT. THESE SUB-TROPICAL AND HIGHER LATITUDE SST ANOMALIES ARE ALSO CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOK AND LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A WEAK EL NINO BEGINNING WITH NDJ 2014-15 AND CONTINUING PRIMARILY THROUGH FMA 2015, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR SOME AREAS IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. SST ANOMALIES IN OTHER AREAS OUTSIDE THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WERE UTILIZED OR CONSIDERED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE WEST COAST, IN PROXIMITY TO ALASKA AND AREAS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON GLOBAL SST PATTERNS WAS ALSO UTILIZED IN THE OUTLOOKS AS WAS INFORMATION FROM A LARGE VARIETY OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE CFS, THE NMME AND IMME AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS, WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR POTENTIAL MODEL BIASES. THE SHIFT IN PROBABILITIES RELATED TO POSITIVE NINO3.4 ANOMALIES IN THE RANGE OF 0.5C TO 1.0C WERE CONSIDERED. ALTHOUGH CHANGES AND EXTENT OF SNOW COVER ACROSS EURASIA AND ANY ASSOCIATED TELECONNECTIONS GENERALLY REQUIRE COMPLETION OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT WAS CONSIDERED IN FORMULATING THE OUTLOOK. FOR OUTLOOKS FROM AMJ THROUGH OND 2015, DECADAL TRENDS DUE TO CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE BASE STATE AND THE CON (HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY TRENDS) ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2014 TO NDJ 2015 TEMPERATURE THE SET OF OUTLOOKS THIS MONTH DEPICT A SOMEWHAT COOLER SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS (THROUGH FMA 2015) AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF OUTLOOKS. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND BETTER STATED, COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED OR REMOVED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASED IN COVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-TO-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS BASED ON AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ANY EL NINO EVENT BEING OF WEAK MAGNITUDE, CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (OTHER THAN THE CFS) AND INDICATIONS IN SOME TOOLS AND INFORMATION FOR A POTENTIAL TENDENCY TOWARD A NEGATIVE AO AND NAO DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. POTENTIAL EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO THE OUTLOOKS PRIMARILY THROUGH FMA 2015. FOR NDJ AND DJF 2014-15, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC (NDJ ONLY). THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD IN DJF FOR BOTH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST ODDS ARE FOR COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIKELY WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES FOR NDJ 2014-15. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR JFM AND FMA 2015 WAS REPLACED WITH EC IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DURING NDJ 2014-15 FROM NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES INCLUDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE LOWER-TO-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH JFM 2015 WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN FMA 2015. THE EVOLUTION IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE FIRST FOUR LEADS DEPICTED IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG DERIVED FROM GLOBAL SSTS ALONG WITH A DECREASE OR REMOVAL OF ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM MANY OF THE NMME AND IMME PARTICIPANT MODELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WINTER BASED ON THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TEMPERATURE FORECAST, NEARBY OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND MODESTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NMME AND IMME GUIDANCE. THE OUTLOOK MAPS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NDJ 2015-16. THE ANOMALOUS DELAY IN ARCTIC OCEAN AND BERING SEA SEA-ICE COVER FOR OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER IN THE LAST DECADE RELATIVE TO THE 1981-2010 CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD RESULTS IN GREATLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA FROM ASO - OND 2015. PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK MAPS THROUGH FMA 2015 WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON POTENTIAL EL NINO CONDITIONS, DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME AND IMME AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GLOBAL SST BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TOOL WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TENDED TO INDICATE INCREASED WETNESS IN MANY AREAS OF THE CONUS AS COMPARED TO GUIDANCE LAST MONTH. ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH FMA 2015. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. EL NINO COMPOSITES ALSO WEAKLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE SIGNALS IN THE NMME AND IMME MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT ADDING THIS REGION TO BOTH THE NDJ AND DJF 2014-15 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. BOTH EL NINO CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF THE FAVORED ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING JFM AND FMA 2015. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MAM 2015, AND FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH MAM 2015. A LESS ROBUST SIGNAL THIS MONTH IN DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN NDJ AND DJF 2014-15 IN THIS AREA WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FORECASTS FOR THESE SEASONS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FMA 2015. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING AMJ AND MJJ 2015 AND FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE JAS AND ASO 2015 SEASONS DUE TO DECADAL TRENDS. FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP:/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON NOV 20 2014 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 FORECAST RELEASE. $$