PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2015 SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 30.68 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 19.75 INCHES (142 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 18.25 INCHES (126 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 109.14 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII FOR JANUARY 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN JANUARY 2015. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 71.6 0.5 EC 3.1 8.9 11.8 KAHULUI A45 72.1 0.6 EC 1.2 2.3 2.8 HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 2.1 LIHUE A45 71.8 0.7 EC 1.3 2.2 4.8 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2015 - JFM 2016 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE MONTHLY EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE LARGELY NEAR AVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY ANOMALIES EMERGED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. RAINFALL CONTINUED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE DATE LINE AND NEAR AVERAGE EAST OF THE DATE LINE. WIND AND RAINFALL ANOMALIES DO NOT SHOW TYPICAL EL NINO COUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE OCEAN IN SPITE OF ABOVE NORMAL EQUATORIAL SST'S. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE CHANCE OF EL NINO IS ABOUT 65% DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2015. NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO MAM 2015 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND. BASED ON ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, THE HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN HAWAII DURING EL NINO. NCEP AND NMME MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO MAM 2015. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2015 A45 71.8 0.4 B45 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2015 A45 71.7 0.4 B45 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2015 A40 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2015 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2016 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2016 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2015 A45 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2015 A45 72.3 0.4 B45 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2015 A40 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2015 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2016 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2015 A45 73.9 0.4 B45 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2015 A45 73.8 0.4 B45 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2015 A40 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2015 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2015 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2016 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2016 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2015 A45 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2015 A40 72.1 0.5 B45 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2015 A40 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2015 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JAN 15, 2015. $$