PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY JUL 16 2015 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF EQUATORIAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ABOVE THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALSO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THOSE TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE SUB-SURFACE EQUATORIAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO THE OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK, WHICH CALLS FOR EL NINO TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SPRING, 2016. THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2015 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO WESTERN ARIZONA, AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, INCLUDING PARTS LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASO 2015 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INCLUDING THE GREAT BASIN, AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE THE OHIO VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. IN THE SUBSEQUENT SEASONS, THE OUTLOOK SLOWLY CHANGES TO REFLECT MORE CANONICAL ENSO IMPACTS AS WE HEAD TOWARD METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SST ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE MORE THAN +1.0 C FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO AROUND LONGITUDE 170 E, WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE ANOMALIES OBSERVED NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARD 130 W. ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE CURRENTLY AROUND +1.5 C. SUB-SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH ANOMALIES OF UP TO +6.0 C BETWEEN 50 AND 100 METERS DEPTH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AREA OF SUB-SURFACE, ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS PROVIDE A WELL OF WARM WATER TO HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS TO THE SSTS CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST, WITH PERSISTENT ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS FROM NEAR 160 E TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST MONTH OVER THE WESTERN MARITIME CONTINENT. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE ENSO SENSITIVE REGIONS SINCE MARCH WHILE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT UPPER LEVELS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PDO, WITH THE MONTHLY INDEX INCREASING TO 1.54 DURING JUNE, AS DOCUMENTED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON. THIS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON CONDITIONS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, ESPECIALLY IN LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR SSTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NINO 3.4 ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE AND PEAK DURING THE LATE FALL. THE AVERAGE AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PROVIDED TO IRI PEAKS AT JUST OVER +2.0 C DURING OND 2015. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION HAS A SLIGHTLY DELAYED PEAK DURING NDJ 2015-2016, BUT AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE. THE EVENT THEN WEAKENS IN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH NEXT SPRING. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION REMAINS ABOVE +1.0 C THROUGH FMA 2016. A CONSENSUS OF EXPERTS AT CPC AND IRI HAVE DETERMINED THAT THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80% CHANCE OF EL NINO LASTING INTO EARLY SPRING, 2016. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FROM JAS 2015 THROUGH MAM 2016 WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON TYPICAL ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSES TO EL NINO, ASSESSED THROUGH LINEAR REGRESSIONS AND COMPOSITE TECHNIQUES. THE NMME AND CONTRIBUTING MODELS WERE ALSO GIVEN SOME WEIGHT THROUGH EARLY WINTER. THE OUTLOOKS FOR AMJ THROUGH JAS 2016 CONSIST OF A BLEND OF EL NINO COMPOSITES AND LONG TERM TRENDS, EMPHASIZING THE CPC CONSOLIDATION AT THE LONGEST LEAD TIMES. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - ASO 2015 TO ASO 2016 TEMPERATURE THE ASO 2015 OUTLOOK RELIES ON NMME OUTPUT, SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOGS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE EL NINO COMPOSITES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS, NMME OUTPUTS, AND REGRESSIONS BASED ON ENSO CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN ARIZONA, WHERE TRENDS, RECENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, REGRESSIONS OF TEMPERATURE ON THE PDO, AND NMME OUTPUTS SUGGEST ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER AN AREA EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH NMME MODEL OUTPUT AND COMPOSITES OF EL NINO CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. AS THE FORECASTS PROGRESS INTO THE AUTUMN, THE PATTERN SLOWLY MORPHS TO ONE CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, LARGELY FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ARE HIGHEST IN FMA 2016. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOKS ISSUED LAST MONTH ARE THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR EL NINO BEING MORE CERTAIN ON A MODERATE TO STRONG EVENT. MORE CERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF EL NINO DURING THE WINTER ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED CERTAINTY, WHICH ALSO ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OF PREDICTED SHIFTS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES. BEGINNING IN AMJ 2016, THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED IMPACTS RELATED TO EL NINO CONDITIONS DIMINISHES DUE TO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE WARM EVENT DURING SPRING 2016, WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INDICATED FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY SUMMER 2016, THE TRENDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GAIN INFLUENCE AS THE WANING EL NINO LOSES INFLUENCE, SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CPC CONSOLIDATION AND TRENDS. PRECIPITATION DURING ASO 2015, THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS INCLUDING THE NMME, REGRESSIONS OF PRECIPITATION ON NINO 3.4, AND CONSTRUCTED ANALOGS BASED ON SST AND SOIL MOISTURE INDICATED ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AVAILABLE INDICATE INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN GENERALLY TWO AREAS, THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES, AS WELL AS A MUCH WEAKER SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASO 2015 OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS, NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTWARD TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EL NINO IMPACTS TEND TO ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INFLUENCING NORMALLY DRY REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE FALL, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IN ASO 2015. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, REFLECTIVE OF A SIGNAL IN THE NMME OUTLOOKS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST IS A SIGNAL IN THE EL NINO COMPOSITES AND NMME OUTPUTS. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME, CONSISTENT WITH STATISTICAL ENSO-BASED GUIDANCE. THE NMME FORECASTS STILL APPEAR TOO WET THROUGH OND 2015, BUT THEN EXHIBIT GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH CANONICAL EL NINO IMPACTS IN NDJ 2015-2016. THE NMME HAS BEEN ABLE TO CAPTURE THE LARGELY WET PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. THE FORECAST ROBUST EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM AUTUMN 2015 TO SPRING 2016. THUS THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM SON 2015 - FMA 2016. INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR EAST NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FROM DJF - FMA 2015-16. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A ROBUST ENSO EVENT THROUGH THE WINTER, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH RESPECT TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK CYCLE FOR THE COLD SEASON. THIS INCLUDES INCREASED PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE STRENGTH AND CERTAINTY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY PART OF 2016, THE RELIABLE SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES VANISH BY AMJ 2016, LEADING TO EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE- NEAR- AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR AMJ 2016 AND BEYOND. FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP:/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON AUG 20 2015 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 FORECAST RELEASE. $$