PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2015 SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE DEGREE C OVER NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLAN AND ABOUT POSITIVE TWO DEGREE C SURROUNDING THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 22.30 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 15.77 INCHES (164 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 15.44 INCHES (139 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 94.59 INCHES (105 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN NOVEMBER. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN NOVEMBER 2015. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A55 74.4 0.4 EC 8.7 11.4 17.1 KAHULUI A55 76.0 0.6 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6 HONOLULU A55 77.8 0.6 EC 0.9 1.4 2.1 LIHUE A50 75.8 0.5 EC 2.6 3.5 5.5 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2015 - NDJ 2016 REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE OR NEAR-ZERO ANOMALIES WERE EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. AS IS TYPICAL IN EL NINO EVENTS, ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS. TOGETHER THESE INDICATORS POINT TO STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS INTO THE SPRING 2016. THE OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN 95% CHANCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2015-16, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH SPRING 2016. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER. NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM NDJ 2015 TO FMA 2016, HONOLULU FROM NDJ 2015 TO DJF 2016, LIHUE FOR NDJ 2015, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE- NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT HILO AND KAHULUI BY MAM AND BEYOND, AT HONOLULU FOR JFM AND BEYOND, AND LIHUE FOR DJF AND BEYOND. EL NINO CONDITIONS TYPICALLY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN HAWAII THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT ALL HAWAIIAN FORECAST LOCATIONS FROM NDJ 2015 THROUGH MAM 2016. WITH THE ENSO STATE UNCERTIAN BEYOND THE SPRINGTIME, AND FEW ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE SIGNALS, A FORECAST OF EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE- NEAR- OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS ISSUED FOR HAWAII FOR AMJ 2016 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2015 A60 74.2 0.4 B55 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2016 A50 72.8 0.4 B60 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2016 A45 71.8 0.4 B60 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2016 A40 71.7 0.4 B50 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2016 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2016 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2016 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2016 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2016 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2016 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2016 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2016 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2015 A60 75.9 0.4 B50 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2016 A50 73.8 0.4 B60 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2016 A45 72.5 0.4 B60 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2016 A40 72.3 0.4 B45 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2016 EC 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2016 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2016 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2015 A45 77.7 0.5 B50 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2016 A40 75.3 0.5 B60 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2016 EC 73.9 0.4 B60 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 B45 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2016 EC 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2016 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2016 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2016 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2016 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2016 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2016 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2016 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2016 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2015 A40 75.7 0.3 B50 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 B60 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 B60 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2016 EC 72.1 0.5 B45 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2016 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2016 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 19, 2015. $$