PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2016 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 28.62 INCHES (90 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 20.84 INCHES (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 20.75 INCHES (143 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 133.49 INCHES (116 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH-AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JANUARY 2016. NCEP TOOLS, DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE CURRENT STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, INDICATE MODEST ELEVATION OF THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN JANUARY, 2016. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A45 71.6 0.5 B60 3.1 8.9 11.8 KAHULUI A45 72.1 0.6 B60 1.2 2.3 2.8 HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 B60 0.7 1.1 2.1 LIHUE A45 71.8 0.7 B60 1.3 2.2 4.8 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2016 - JFM 2017 REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. SST ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE 2 DEGREES C AND HIGHER FROM THE DATE LINE TO NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST, WITH ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 DEGREES C FROM ABOUT 160W TO 100 W. POSITIVE SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS. TOGETHER THESE INDICATORS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2015-16, WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL ANTICIPATED DURING LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016. NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO, KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FROM JFM 2016 TO MJJ 2016, AND LIHUE FROM MAM TO MJJ 2016, ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED SSTS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE- NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JJA 2016 AND BEYOND, EL NINO CONDITIONS TYPICALLY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN HAWAII THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT ALL HAWAIIAN FORECAST LOCATIONS FROM JFM 2016 THROUGH AMJ 2016. WITH THE ENSO STATE UNCERTIAN BEYOND THE SPRING, AND FEW ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE SIGNALS, A FORECAST OF EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE- NEAR- OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS ISSUED FOR HAWAII FOR MJJ 2016 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2016 A45 71.8 0.4 B60 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2016 A45 71.7 0.4 B60 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2016 A40 72.0 0.5 B50 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2016 A40 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2016 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2016 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2016 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2016 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2016 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2016 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2017 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2016 A45 72.5 0.4 B60 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2016 A40 72.3 0.4 B60 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2016 A40 73.0 0.4 B50 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2016 A40 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2016 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2016 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2016 A40 73.9 0.4 B60 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2016 A40 73.8 0.4 B60 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2016 A40 74.8 0.4 B50 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2016 A40 76.3 0.4 B40 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2016 A40 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2016 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2016 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2016 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2016 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2016 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2016 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2017 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 B60 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2016 EC 72.1 0.5 B60 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2016 A40 72.8 0.5 B50 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2016 A40 74.2 0.5 B40 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2016 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2016 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2017 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JAN 21, 2016. $$