PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2016 THE ONGOING, STRONG EL NINO IS THE EXPECTED PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IN MARCH. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EL NINO CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOKS. THE CURRENT EVENT IS AMONG THE STRONGEST EVENTS IN THE OBSERVATION RECORDS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENT IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN BOREAL SPRING, IT IS PROBABLE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN MOST OF MARCH. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF DYNAMICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ALL INDICATE IMPACTS OF THE EL NINO. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS A POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTOR TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY OVER NORTH AMERICA ON SUBSEASONAL TIMESCALES. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT THAT A CURRENT MJO EVENT WILL PROPAGATE DURING THE END OF FEBRUARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC, WHERE IT CAN IMPACT THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE MJO AFTER THE END OF FEBRUARY, SUCH THAT MJO IMPACTS ON THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA ARE UNCERTAIN AND DO NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE MARCH OUTLOOK. DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUTS, INCLUDING THE NMME AND CFS, WERE THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IN THE MARCH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. SEE THE NMME MONTHLY FORECAST AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/NMME/MONANOM.SHTML FOR THE MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS, MOST OF THE MODELS IN THE NMME INDICATE PATTERNS CONSISTENT WITH THE EL NINO IMPACTS BASED ON REGRESSION TO THE NINO 3.4 INDEX, WITH SMALL SPATIAL DIFFERENCES. THE NMME AND CFS MODEL FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CANONICAL EL NINO IMPACTS AS DETERMINED BY CORRELATION MAPS BASED ON NINO 3.4. THOSE CORRELATIONS IMPLY ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO HAVE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS, AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MAINE, AND ALSO FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MUCH OF WEST AND INTERIOR ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS PREDICTED BY THE NMME CLOSELY MATCHES THE MARCH IMPACTS OF EL NINO. THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "COMPOSITES" AND USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - CALLED THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE SIMILAR NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING BOREAL WINTER AND ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFS) AND FOR THE ZERO-LEAD UPDATE FORECASTS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COMPRISED OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS IS ALSO USED. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON SUN FEBRUARY 28 2016 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. $$