PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2016 THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS UPDATED AT THE END OF THE MONTH USING THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM FOR MARCH, AS WELL AS REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM, BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE CFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH WEEK, AND PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECASTS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC). THE UPDATED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK EXPANDS THE AREA OF INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES, AND NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS MARCH FORECAST, AS WELL AS GUIDANCE FOR WEEK 2 FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE ECMWF AND CFS ENSEMBLES. A TRANSITION, FROM BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MONTH TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER, IS PREDICTED. IN OTHER REGIONS, THE FORECAST OF ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES IN MUCH OF THE WEST. THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST IS REDUCED AND MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE HALF-MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK, AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 2 TO 4. THE UPDATED PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS SIMILAR TO THE HALF-MONTH LEAD, INDICATING ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES, AND THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS. FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MONTH RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DECREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK, ARE INDICATED BY FORECASTS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH FOR BELOW OR NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN THE HALF-MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK, HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOLLOWING RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IN CONSIDERATION OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE HALF-MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK IS REMOVED IN THE MONTHLY UPDATE, WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR THIS REGION IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 18, 2016, APPEARS BELOW. THE ONGOING, STRONG EL NINO IS THE EXPECTED PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IN MARCH. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EL NINO CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOKS. THE CURRENT EVENT IS AMONG THE STRONGEST EVENTS IN THE OBSERVATION RECORDS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENT IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN BOREAL SPRING, IT IS PROBABLE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN MOST OF MARCH. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF DYNAMICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ALL INDICATE IMPACTS OF THE EL NINO. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS A POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTOR TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY OVER NORTH AMERICA ON SUBSEASONAL TIMESCALES. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS PREDICT THAT A CURRENT MJO EVENT WILL PROPAGATE DURING THE END OF FEBRUARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC, WHERE IT CAN IMPACT THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE MJO AFTER THE END OF FEBRUARY, SUCH THAT MJO IMPACTS ON THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA ARE UNCERTAIN AND DO NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE MARCH OUTLOOK. DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUTS, INCLUDING THE NMME AND CFS, WERE THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IN THE MARCH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. SEE THE NMME MONTHLY FORECAST AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/NMME/MONANOM.SHTML FOR THE MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS, MOST OF THE MODELS IN THE NMME INDICATE PATTERNS CONSISTENT WITH THE EL NINO IMPACTS BASED ON REGRESSION TO THE NINO 3.4 INDEX, WITH SMALL SPATIAL DIFFERENCES. THE NMME AND CFS MODEL FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CANONICAL EL NINO IMPACTS AS DETERMINED BY CORRELATION MAPS BASED ON NINO 3.4. THOSE CORRELATIONS IMPLY ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO HAVE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS, AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MAINE, AND ALSO FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MUCH OF WEST AND INTERIOR ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS PREDICTED BY THE NMME CLOSELY MATCHES THE MARCH IMPACTS OF EL NINO. THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "COMPOSITES" AND USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - CALLED THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE SIMILAR NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING BOREAL WINTER AND ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFS) AND FOR THE ZERO-LEAD UPDATE FORECASTS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COMPRISED OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS IS ALSO USED. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR APR ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU MAR 17 2016 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. $$