PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2016 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 0.32 INCHES (9 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.03 INCHES (1 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.55 INCHES (19 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 1.29 INCHES (14 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH-AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF MARCH 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2016. NCEP TOOLS, DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE CURRENT STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, INDICATE MODEST ELEVATION OF THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN MARCH 2016. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A60 72.0 0.6 B60 5.7 10.8 15.2 KAHULUI A60 72.9 0.5 B60 1.4 1.9 2.9 HONOLULU A60 74.7 0.5 B60 0.6 0.8 1.9 LIHUE A60 72.7 0.6 B60 1.9 2.6 3.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2016 - MAM 2017 REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH SST ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 2 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC EXTEND EASTWARD TO ~145ºW AND REMAIN AT DEPTH. ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE APPARENT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. TOGETHER THESE INDICATORS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016, WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE FALL. NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM MAM 2016 TO ASO 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON 2016 AND BEYOND. NCEP AND NMME CLIMATE MODELS AND ENSO COMPOSITES INDICATED BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM MAM TO AMJ 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR MJJ 2016 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2016 A60 72.0 0.5 B60 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2016 A60 72.9 0.5 B45 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2016 A60 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2016 A60 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2016 A60 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2016 A50 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2016 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2016 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2017 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2016 A60 73.0 0.4 B60 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2016 A60 74.3 0.5 B45 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2016 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2016 A50 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2016 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2016 A60 74.8 0.4 B60 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2016 A60 76.3 0.4 B45 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2016 A60 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2016 A60 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2016 A60 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2016 A50 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2016 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2016 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2016 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2017 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 2016 A60 72.8 0.5 B60 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2016 A60 74.2 0.5 B45 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2016 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2016 A50 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2016 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2017 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAR 17, 2016. $$