PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2016

THE APRIL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED WITH 
CONSIDERATIONS FROM ONGOING STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY, 
MOST RECENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INTEGRATED OVER MULTIPLE TIME PERIODS. 

STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN 
WHILE THE MJO CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE NOW 
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH TIME. 
THE MJO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND 
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BY 
APRIL. THE MJO WILL FIRST DESTRUCTIVELY, THEN CONSTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE WITH THE 
EL NINO BASE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE 
VARIABILITY IN THE PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD. BY APRIL, THERE MAY EMERGE A 
COUPLET OF EQUATORIAL SUPPRESSED/ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC THAT CAN BE CONSIDERED FOR POTENTIAL 
TELECONNECTION TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING EARLY APRIL. 

ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MID-MARCH FOR A REGION 
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO 
VALLEY.

THE APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. 
AREAS IN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH 
EL NINO CONDITIONS AND STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. 
ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN WATERS NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN 
ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE 
AREAS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACK OF 
EL NINO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WINTER MONTHS IN MANY OF THESE AREAS. LAGGED 
COMPOSITES WITH CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY SUPPORT POTENTIAL MEAN RIDGING AND ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CONUS IN EARLY APRIL AND 
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FAVORS A TILT IN THE ODDS 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. WET SURFACE CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD AND MODEST DYNAMICAL 
MODEL SUPPORT FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE APRIL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA. EL NINO 
CONDITIONS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT AREAS ACROSS THE WEST, THE 
PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. MJO CONSIDERATIONS ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT IN 
THE ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE 
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH. FOR ALASKA, BELOW AVERAGE SEA ICE 
COVERAGE AND CFS GUIDANCE SUPPORT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLIGHTED 
AREA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, PARTS OF 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS 
CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR APR WILL BE ISSUED ON THU MARCH 31 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

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