PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2016 THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JUNE 2016 ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WPC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, THE CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE MJO RECENTLY WEAKENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE ROBUST MJO SIGNAL DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BY MID-JUNE. EXCEPT FOR MODULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, THE MJO TYPICALLY HAS LESS INFLUENCE ON THE EXTRATROPICS DURING THE WARM SEASON. THEREFORE, THE MJO AND WANING EL NINO DID NOT PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE UPDATED JUNE TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK DUE TO: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED BY THE CFS MONTHLY, AND SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. AS OF MAY 30, SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH TO TEXAS WITH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 15 DEGREES F ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THE COVERAGE OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS REDUCED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH EARLY IN THE MONTH. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF JUNE AND THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS IS BASED ON A CONSISTENT WET SIGNAL EARLY IN JUNE. NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH PARTS OF NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AS THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE MONTH WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS THEREAFTER. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE AND THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES THIS DRY SIGNAL DURING WEEKS 3 AND 4. ALSO, RECENT MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE CFS MODEL HAVE TRENDED DRIER ACROSS THESE AREAS. DUE TO CONFLICTING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS AT DIFFERENT TIME RANGES, EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE NECESSARY FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING NEAR 2.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED WETNESS DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE. ----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE (FROM MAY 19) IS SHOWN BELOW ------------ THE JUNE 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A DIMINISHING ROLE IN CLIMATE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE MJO STRENGTHENED DURING MID-MAY, ITS EFFECTS ON THE EXTRATROPICS ARE LESS IMPACTFUL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE EVOLVING MJO ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON MAY 31. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS DEPICT INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S., WHILE SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON JUNE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, MUCH OF NEBRASKA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS ARE BASED ON THIS ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE SPATIAL PATTERN FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. A CONSENSUS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FEATURES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CALIBRATED NMME PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT WITH MODEST PROBABILITIES, INCLUDE THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS BASED ON THE CFS MODEL FOR JUNE ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEEKS 3 AND 4, WHICH COVERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A RELATIVELY WET JUNE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR JUL ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUN 16 2016 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. $$