PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2016 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 4.63 INCHES (34 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.87 INCHES (13 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.70 INCHES (54 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 19.03 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JUNE 2016. NCEP TOOLS INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN JUNE 2016. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A60 75.4 0.4 EC 5.3 6.3 8.7 KAHULUI A60 78.0 0.5 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2 HONOLULU A60 80.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3 LIHUE A60 78.1 0.4 EC 1.1 1.3 1.6 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2016 - JJA 2017 REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, BUT THE CURRENT EVENT IS IN ITS DECAYING PHASE. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WEAKENED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC DECREASED TO BELOW AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC, ALL WEAKENED. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING THE SUMMER 2016. A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS LIKELY DURING LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LA NINA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17 NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JJA 2016 TO NDJ 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR DJF 2017 AND BEYOND. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM JAS TO ASO 2016. ALTHOUGH THE MME PREDICTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO OND, THERE IS A DRYING TREND IN HAWAII RAINFALL IN LA NINA YEARS DURING LAST 30 YEARS. HENCE THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR THE INCOMING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WET SEASON (OCT-APR). EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN JJA 2016, AND FOR SON 2016 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2016 A60 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2016 A60 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2016 A60 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2016 A60 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2016 A50 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2016 A40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2017 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2016 A50 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2016 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2016 A60 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2016 A60 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2016 A60 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2016 A60 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2016 A50 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2016 A40 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2017 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2016 A50 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2016 A40 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2017 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 16, 2016. $$