PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2016 THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), WPC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY, THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS, WEEK 2 AND WEEKS 3-4 DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS CURRENT CLIMATE CONDITIONS. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THAT AN MJO SIGNAL WILL BE PRESENT IN JULY. THEREFORE, THE MJO STATE AND THE CURRENT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WERE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE UPDATED JULY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. WHILE THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, PROBABILITIES ARE JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES OF 33 PERCENT OVER MOST REGIONS. RECENT FORECASTS OF THE CFS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WHILE GENERALLY PREDICTING MOST AREAS OF THE U.S. TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHEN AVERAGED FOR JULY. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE CFS, AS WELL AS WEEK 2 FORECASTS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO DECREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS LARGER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FORECASTS OF MONSOON PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALSO LEAD TO A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND A LESSER CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK MADE EARLIER THIS MONTH. ALONG WITH A DECREASING CHANCE FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AND OUT TO TWO WEEKS IN THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS, THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHEAST IN THE JULY OUTLOOK. DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF AN ENHANCED MONSOON FROM THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN THE PREVIOUS JULY OUTLOOK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE CURRENT JULY OUTLOOK, GIVEN DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MONTH. RECENT JULY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE CFS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FOR THE REGION, LEADING TO AN INDICATION OF EQUAL CHANCES. THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINED IN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY RECENT CFS AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA JULY FORECASTS, AND OTHER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED IN THE UPDATE OF THE JULY OUTLOOK, AS IN MODEL FORECASTS. RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT BELOW MEDIAN IS LESS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUCH THAT EQUAL CHANCES IS NOW INDICATED IN THE UPDATE. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS ALASKA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY, ACCORDING TO DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN COAST, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE THAN 2.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CFS FORECASTS. ----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE FROM JUNE 16 IS SHOWN BELOW ------------ THE JULY 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICS, AND THE EL NINO OF LATE 2015 AND EARLY 2016 HAS ENDED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN THE CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA IN JULY. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE MJO RECENTLY STRENGTHENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MJO SIGNAL WILL WEAKEN BY JULY, AND MJO TELECONNECTIONS TO MID-LATITUDES ARE WEAKER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE EVOLVING MJO, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS, WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON JUNE 30. WITH CURRENTLY WEAK TROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS, THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE CFS, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA), AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON JULY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS RANK ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS OF THE CFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS INDICATE A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF TEXAS. THE AREA OF EQUAL-CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS IS LARGELY BASED ON AREAS OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE-MEDIAN SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AS INDICATED BY A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OF SOIL MOISTURE, STATISTICAL TOOL. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CURRENT EVAPORATIVE DRYING OF THE SOIL MOISTURE. THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., ARE CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WHICH INCORPORATE THE DECADAL CLIMATE WARMING TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS. CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO ENHANCED TROPICAL ACTIVITY. CALIBRATED NMME PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DECADAL CLIMATE TREND, INDICATE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, WASHINGTON AND OREGON. NMME, INCLUDING CFS, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUG ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 21 2016 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. $$