PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC STATE INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. THE LATEST CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA CONDITIONS INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT BY ASO WITH PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA PERSISTING ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE 2016-17 WINTER. THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TEMPERED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE JAS 2016 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF ALASKA, THE GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GULF COAST, AND MUCH OF FLORIDA, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17, THE TYPICAL RESPONSE TO LA NINA IS WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY IN CREATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY NEXT WINTER. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER, WITH THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THIS SAME REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS PACIFIC SSTS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE ALONG THE EQUATOR, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT ONI VALUE (MARCH-MAY 2016) IS 1.1 DEGREES C, WHILE THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO 3.4 VALUE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IS AT 0.1 DEGREE C. A LARGE RESERVOIR OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD SUBSURFACE WATERS EXTEND FROM 50 TO 150 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (MORE THAN 2 DEGREES C) PRESENT AT 100 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE FROM 130 TO 150 DEGREES W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION DIMINISHED OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, ENHANCED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE SPCZ DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE PAST MONTH, WHILE THE ANOMALOUS 200-HPA WESTERLIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS INTEGRATED (0-300 METERS DEPTH) EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BECAME NEGATIVE IN MARCH AND REMAINS BELOW-AVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. THIS EXPANSE OF NEGATIVE HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RAPID TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING 2016. THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS SOUTH OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE EAST COAST CONTINUE TO PERSIST. ANOMALOUSLY COLD SSTS REMAIN IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC POLEWARD OF 30 N, WHILE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO FORECAST WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS BY SON WITH AMPLITUDE PEAKING JUST BELOW -0.5 DEGREES C IN NDJ. PREDICTIONS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AVERAGING NEAR -0.5 C FROM LATE SUMMER THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES THAT LA NINA IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY JJA 2016 WITH THE CHANCES OF LA NINA NEAR 75 PERCENT DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FOR THE JAS OUTLOOKS SINCE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS TEXAS. THE TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THOSE POTENTIAL EFFECTS ARE CONSIDERED PRIMARILY BEGINNING IN ASO 2016 AND THROUGHOUT THE AUTUMN AND WINTER MONTHS. CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME THROUGH NDJ 2016-17, A SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS (INCLUDING ENSO EFFECTS AND TRENDS) ARE ALL USED IN CREATING THE OUTLOOKS. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2016 TO JAS 2017 TEMPERATURE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THIS MONTH ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE RELEASED THE PREVIOUS MONTH SINCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA DEVELOPING REMAINS THE SAME. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE JAS OUTLOOK AS THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA SOUTH TO TEXAS. EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EAST TEXAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RANKS IN THE HIGHEST 99TH PERCENTILE. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SHORT-TERM DRYNESS AND DROUGHT IS EXPANDING. ALSO, A DRY SIGNAL IS APPARENT AMONG SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE CFS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING JAS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SSTS REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL. BEGINNING WITH THE OND OUTLOOK, EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH THIS AREA EXPANDING IN THE NDJ OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF LA NINA. ALTHOUGH LA NINA TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES BEGIN TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING NDJ, A STRONG AND CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGH THIS SEASON ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. DURING DJF 2016-17, A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AS LA NINA TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL. THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING JFM 2017, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS AND LA NINA INFLUENCES IN LATER LEADS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA IS BASED ON THE INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM LA NINA DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER. AN EXPECTED LACK OF SEA ICE ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE FALL SEASON. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONSOLIDATION AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THROUGH NDJ, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM LA NINA. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH'S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JAS, ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BASED ON IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR JAS AND ASO 2016, BASED ON CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME. A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPING LA NINA AND STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA DURING JAS AND ASO 2016. NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXISTS AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS WITH MONSOON RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DURING JAS 2016. THEREFORE, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS FOR JAS AND ASO 2016. DURING SON 2016, THE BROAD AREA OF INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ON THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS SEPARATED INTO TWO SEPARATE AREAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. DURING THE FALL AND WINTER OF 2016-17, THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE FAVORED AREAS OF ABOVE OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE, SINCE THE ENSO FORECAST REMAINS STABLE. AT THE LONGER LEADS, MJJ THROUGH JAS 2017, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NEW ENGLAND IS RELATED TO LONG-TERM TRENDS. ALSO, THE FAVORED AREA FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FOR JAS 2017 IS BASED ON TRENDS. FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM L (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON JUL 21 2016 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 FORECAST RELEASE. $$