PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2016 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C, WITH HIGHER ANOMALIES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST ISLANDS. FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 10.73 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.52 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.81 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 68.12 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN OCTOBER 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR HAWAII DURING OCTOBER 2016. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A70 75.7 0.5 A50 7.8 8.6 12.1 KAHULUI A70 78.2 0.4 A50 0.3 0.6 1.1 HONOLULU A70 80.2 0.5 A50 0.5 1.3 1.9 LIHUE A70 78.1 0.3 A50 2.5 3.3 4.2 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2016 - OND 2017 REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR DISCUSSION ON THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE EARLY AUGUST, NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED AT DEPTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE DATE LINE. THE JUNE-AUGUST ONI IS -0.29 WITH THE AUGUST MONTHLY VALUE AT -0.5C. THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY IN A SMALL REGION TO THE EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE COMBINED OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED (BETWEEN 55-60%) DURING THE UPCOMING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17. MOST TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM OND 2016 TO MAM 2016-17 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR AMJ 2017 AND BEYOND. DYNAMICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM OND 2016 TO FMA 2017, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2017 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2016 A70 75.5 0.4 A40 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2016 A70 74.2 0.4 A50 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2017 A65 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2017 A60 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2017 A50 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2017 A40 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.4 A40 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2016 A70 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2017 A65 73.8 0.4 A40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2017 A60 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2017 A50 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2017 A40 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2016 A70 80.0 0.4 A40 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2016 A70 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2017 A65 75.3 0.5 A40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2017 A60 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2017 A50 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2017 A40 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.3 A40 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2016 A70 75.7 0.3 A50 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2017 A65 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2017 A60 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2017 A50 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2017 A40 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 20, 2016. $$