PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2016 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 11.37 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.44 INCHES (119 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.05 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 78.86 INCHES (88 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN NOVEMBER 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR HAWAII DURING NOVEMBER 2016. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A65 74.4 0.4 A40 8.7 11.4 17.1 KAHULUI A65 76.0 0.6 A40 1.2 1.8 2.6 HONOLULU A65 77.8 0.6 A40 0.9 1.4 2.1 LIHUE A65 75.8 0.5 A40 2.6 3.5 5.5 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2016 - NDJ 2017 REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR DISCUSSION ON THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND OF THE FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. CURRENTLY BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES REFLECT A SHIFT TOWARD LA NINA CONDITIONS. DURING THE LAST FOUR WEEKS, NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED NEAR THE DATE LINE AND IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED AT DEPTH EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. CONVECTION WAS WEAKLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND WAS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS A SMALL REGION OF THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP WITH 70 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL 2016 AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO PERSIST DURING WINTER 2016-17. MOST TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ 2016 TO AMJ 2017 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR MJJ 2017 AND BEYOND. DYNAMICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ 2016 TO MAM 2017, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN AMJ 2017 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2016 A70 74.2 0.4 A40 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2017 A70 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2017 A65 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2017 A60 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2017 A50 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2017 A40 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2016 A70 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2017 A70 73.8 0.4 A40 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2017 A65 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2017 A60 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2017 A50 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2017 A40 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2017 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2016 A70 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2017 A70 75.3 0.5 A40 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2017 A65 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2017 A60 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2017 A50 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2017 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2017 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV NDJ 2016 A70 75.7 0.3 A40 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2017 A70 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2017 A65 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2017 A60 72.1 0.5 A50 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2017 A50 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2017 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2017 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 17, 2016. $$