PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THU JAN 19 2017 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2017 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO AND POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 13.39 INCHES (36 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 13.16 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 18.85 INCHES (106 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 128.43 INCHES (101 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SLIGHTLY ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2017. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING FEBRUARY 2017. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO A50 71.4 0.5 B40 5.0 8.4 11.1 KAHULUI A50 71.9 0.6 B40 0.9 1.1 1.8 HONOLULU A50 73.3 0.5 B40 0.7 1.0 1.4 LIHUE A50 71.7 0.6 B40 1.3 1.8 4.0 SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2017 - FMA 2018 REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WEAKENED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES INCREASED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC, AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. A TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY FEBRUARY 2017, WITH ENSO NEUTRAL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2017. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM FMA 2017 TO JJA 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JAS 2017 AND BEYOND. CFS AND IMME (THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AT NCEP) TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN FMA 2017. THE SIGNALS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DIMINISH IN MAM 2017, AND EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2017 AND LONGER LEADS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2017 A70 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 MAM 2017 A65 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0 AMJ 2017 A60 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0 MJJ 2017 A50 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 JJA 2017 A40 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 NDJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 DJF 2018 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 JFM 2018 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 FMA 2018 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 \N KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2017 A70 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4 MAM 2017 A65 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6 AMJ 2017 A60 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2 MJJ 2017 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 JJA 2017 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 NDJ 2017 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 DJF 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 JFM 2018 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 FMA 2018 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 \N HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2017 A70 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7 MAM 2017 A65 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0 AMJ 2017 A60 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8 MJJ 2017 A50 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 JJA 2017 A40 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 NDJ 2017 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 DJF 2018 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 JFM 2018 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 FMA 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 \N LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV FMA 2017 A70 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9 MAM 2017 A65 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0 AMJ 2017 A60 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0 MJJ 2017 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 JJA 2017 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 NDJ 2017 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 DJF 2018 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 JFM 2018 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 FMA 2018 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 \NFORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 16, 2017. $$