PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS ACCORDING TO THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ISSUED APRIL 12, 2018, A LA NINA ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING APRIL-MAY, WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL THEN LIKELY (GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE) TO CONTINUE THROUGH BOREAL SUMMER 2018. THE MAY-JUN-JUL (MJJ) 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES REACH OR EXCEED 60% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES REACH OR EXCEED 50% OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALL OF ALASKA, WITH MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 50% OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE, THE EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MJJ 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS, AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. PROBABILITIES REACH OR EXCEED 50% ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA IN WESTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BELOW AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THOUGH THE NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE MODEST (-0.5C). THE VERY LATEST WEEKLY SST DEPARTURE VALUE FOR THE NINO-3.4 REGION IS -0.4C, UP SLIGHTLY FROM TWO WEEKS AGO. AS THE NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE WEAKENING NEAR THE SURFACE, THE SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (50-250 METERS DEEP) OF THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WARMED DUE TO THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF DOWNWELLING EQUATORIAL OCEANIC KELVIN WAVES. THE GREATEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, +4 TO +6 DEG C, WERE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE, AT A DEPTH OF ABOUT 150 METERS. INCIDENTALLY, CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA, SUB-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -4 DEG C BELOW AVERAGE WERE OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS RELATIVELY COOL WATER AT DEPTH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF LA NINA, IT APPEARS THAT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON A HIGHER-FREQUENCY TIME SCALE MAY BE THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND THE UPWELLING IN THIS AREA. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES AVERAGED OVER THE PAST MONTH DEPICT ENHANCED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF AUSTRALIA ACROSS THE CORAL SEA (IN PART RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY), WHICH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). OLR ANOMALIES WERE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT REGION, AND MODERATELY POSITIVE NEAR THE DATE LINE, BOTH OF WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH A RESIDUAL LA NINA. DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS, NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT, AND EASTERLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE DATE LINE. AT UPPER-LEVELS (200-HPA), TWO LARGE CYCLONIC VORTICES STRADDLED THE EQUATOR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OVERALL, OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A RESIDUAL LA NINA IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO ENSO-NEUTRAL. OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER INCLUDE SOIL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. THE SOIL MOISTURE CHANGE MAP FOR THE PAST SEASON (FEBRUARY THROUGH MID-APRIL 2018) DEPICTS ANOMALOUSLY WET SOILS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ANOMALOUSLY DRY SOILS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERN GENERALLY MIRRORS THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR THE SAME PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH, SNOW COVER IS STILL A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NORTHERN IOWA AND MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT SNOWSTORM WHICH DEPOSITED UP TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TWIN CITIES AREA OF MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION (CON) FORECAST FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION PREDICTS A SLOW, GRADUAL INCREASE IN ANOMALY VALUES FROM ABOUT -0.5C TO +0.4C OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS OR SO, PEAKING AT A MAXIMUM SST ANOMALY OF +0.6C (JUST INSIDE WEAK EL NINO TERRITORY) BY NDJ 2018/19. THE CON CLOSELY PARALLELS THE CFS SST ANOMALY FORECAST THROUGH OND 2018. SOME OF THE INPUTS TO THE CON FORECAST, SUCH AS THE CCA AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), PREDICT SOLUTIONS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND WARMER (RESPECTIVELY) THAN THE CON. THE CPC-IRI CONSENSUS PREDICTS THE PROBABILITY FOR ENSO-NEUTRAL TO REACH A PEAK OF 70% IN MJJ, GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER AND AUTUMN TO ABOUT 40% BY NDJ 2018/19. IN CONTRAST, THE PROBABILITY OF AN EL NINO STARTS OFF NEAR 10% IN MJJ, AND STEADILY RISES TO JUST UNDER 50% BY NDJ 2018/19. IT IS DURING THE OND SEASON THAT THE CHANCES OF AN EL NINO EXCEED THOSE OF A NEUTRAL EVENT. CHANCES FOR A LA NINA DROP RAPIDLY FROM JUST UNDER 20% IN MJJ TO 10-15% IN JJA, AND CONTINUE AT THAT REDUCED LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER AND AUTUMN MONTHS. THE NMME AND IMME SST PLUMES FORECAST SST ANOMALIES TO RISE FROM ABOUT -0.5C THROUGH NEUTRAL TERRITORY (-0.49 TO +0.49), EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO (+0.5C) BY SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, RESPECTIVELY. THE ECMWF SST ANOMALY FORECAST, WHICH USES A 51-MEMBER ENSEMBLE, IS THE WARMEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS, WITH ALL 51 MEMBERS FORECASTING AT LEAST POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION BY OCTOBER, AND MOST OF THOSE MEMBERS BEING CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND MORE BULLISH FOR A EL NINO. SOME MEMBERS REACH THE NOMINAL EL NINO THRESHOLD AS EARLY AS JULY. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE FIRST FEW LEADS OF THE CURRENT SUITE OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE SET OF OUTLOOKS ISSUED LAST MONTH, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS OF AN EL NINO. INITIALLY, A SMALL AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS FORECAST OVER PART OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN JJA AND JAS, BUT THIS FORECAST WAS DEEMED UNLIKELY TO VERIFY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PRONOUNCED WET SIGNAL IN THIS SAME AREA. FOR THE MJJ-ASO SEASONS, ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE, WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A POTENTIAL INCIPIENT EL NINO. THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF AN EL NINO ARE WEIGHTED A BIT MORE FOR THE SON 2018 TO MAM 2019 SEASONS. THOUGH WE APPEAR HEADED TOWARD A COLD-SEASON EL NINO, THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL FALSE STARTS IN RECENT YEARS WHERE PROMISING EL NINOS SIMPLY FADED AWAY. IT IS TOO EARLY IN THE CALENDAR YEAR TO PREDICT A FULL-FLEDGED EL NINO AT THIS TIME, SO FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF OUTLOOKS, WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCE POTENTIAL EL NINO INFLUENCES LATER THIS SUMMER, AND ASSUME A WEAK EL NINO DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON 2018-19. MODELS AND TOOLS USED IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THESE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS INCLUDE BIAS-CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE, THE IMME, CFS, CON, AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG WHICH INCORPORATES PACIFIC SST INFORMATION (CA-SST). A BASELINE TOOL THAT COMBINES THE INFLUENCES OF ENSO AND DECADAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS ANCHORED TO THE CPC NINO 3.4 SST CON FORECAST (ENSO-OCN TOOL) WAS HEAVILY RELIED UPON DURING LEADS 5-11 (SON 2018 THROUGH MAM 2019). FOR LEADS 12-13 (AMJ AND MJJ 2019), DECADAL TRENDS IMPLICIT IN THE CON TOOL WERE USED. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MJJ 2018 TO MJJ 2019 TEMPERATURE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MJJ FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND ALL OF ALASKA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUCH TOOLS AS THE ENSO-OCN TOOL, SST-CA, CALIBRATED NMME, AND CON. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST REFLECT HISTORICAL TRENDS. FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, EC IS CONSIDERED THE BEST CATEGORY, SUPPORTED BY THE CON, IMME, CA-SST, ENSO-CON, AND THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS (SMLR, CCA, AND OCN). THE IDEA OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ITS SURROUNDINGS IS A NOD IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EARLY STAGES OF A POTENTIAL EL NINO. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, SEVERAL TOOLS PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION NOT ONLY DURING MJJ, BUT ALSO JJA AND JAS. ONE OF THE BIGGEST PROPONENTS FAVORING ANOMALOUS COLD (ESPECIALLY IN JJA) IS THE BRIDGED COMPONENT OF THE CBAM TOOL, WHICH OVERWHELMS THE MINOR CONTRIBUTION FROM THE WARMER CALIBRATION COMPONENT IN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA IS THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF A PRONOUNCED WET SIGNAL IN THIS SAME GENERAL REGION, WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST FOR ANOMALOUS COLD MUCH LESS LIKELY. FOR JJA AND JAS, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE COMPARED WITH MJJ IS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF EC ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES, DUE IN PART TO THE BRIDGED COMPONENT OF THE CBAM TOOL AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, AND ALSO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL UPCOMING WARM PHASE OF ENSO. BY ASO, THIS LARGE REGION OF PREDICTED EC IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE. THE OUTLOOKS FROM SON 2018 THROUGH MAM 2019 ARE TILTED IN THE DIRECTION OF A WEAK EL NINO, AND ARE BASED HEAVILY ON THE ENSO-OCN TOOL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS IN SON, WITH AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY (EXPRESSED AS EC) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN OND. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF EC INCREASES DURING NDJ, DJF, AND JFM OF NEXT YEAR. BY JFM, ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS FAVORED FOR APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH EC PREDICTED ELSEWHERE. BY FMA, ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, AND CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST, AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING MAM 2019. THE ONLY AREA OF PREDICTED EC IS AGAIN LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES BY THIS TIME. FOR THE FINAL TWO SEASONS (AMJ AND MJJ 2019), HISTORICAL TRENDS IMPLICIT IN THE CON TOOL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST TOOL, PRODUCING AN OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN SIMILAR TO MAM. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT WARMING TREND SIGNALS BECOME STRONGER IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS, WARRANTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ALASKA DURING SON, NEARLY ALL TOOLS AGREED ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ATTRIBUTED TO EARLIER-THAN-NORMAL BREAKUP OF SEA ICE, AND RELATIVELY WARM SSTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST). SEA ICE TRENDS RELATED TO THE DELAYED ONSET OF SEA ICE IN RECENT YEARS IS THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE IN SON, AND AT LEAST 50% IN OND. DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS PLAY A LARGE ROLE FOR THE 49TH STATE THROUGHOUT THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MJJ DEPICTS ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH PROBABILITIES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 50% IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE WET ANOMALIES ARE SUPPORTED (TO VARYING DEGREES) BY THE CA-SST, SMLR, OCN, CFS, CALIBRATED NMME, IMME, CON, CALIBRATED COMPONENT OF THE CBAM, AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSO-OCN TOOL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM ABOUT THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS DRY ANOMALY ALSO DRAWS MUCH OF ITS SUPPORT FROM THE ENSO-OCN TOOL, CCA, OCN, CFS, CALIBRATED NMME, IMME, AND CON. THE ENSO-OCN TOOL, IN PARTICULAR, REVEALS THE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ENSO PHASE AND DECADAL TRENDS IN THE MJJ PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR JJA AND JAS, THESE THREE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES CONTINUE, THOUGH VARY IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN NEW MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA (JJA), AND FOR MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN JAS. WELL BELOW NORMAL WINTER SNOWPACK ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TENDS TO FAVOR THE EARLY ONSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. SOME TOOLS, SUCH AS THE CA-SST, SMLR, OCN, CBAM, IMME, FORECAST (TO VARYING DEGREES), ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE MONSOON REGION DURING JJA AND JAS. THE CFS IS BULLISH ON ITS PREDICTION OF AN ACTIVE MONSOON, BUT SKILL MAPS THAT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PRIOR PERFORMANCE DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. IN ADDITION, THE ENSO-OCN TOOL DOES NOT PREDICT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON SEASON. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WET SIGNAL DRAWS ITS SUPPORT FROM THE CA-SST, CON, AND THE ENSO-OCN. THE CFS AND CALIBRATED NMME PROVIDE, AT BEST, MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR THIS WET SIGNAL. BY ASO, ONLY THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALASKA WET SIGNALS REMAIN, WITH THE FORMER DISAPPEARING BY SON, AND THE LATTER DISAPPEARING BY OND. WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENSO PHASE DURING THIS UPCOMING COLD SEASON, IT WAS DECIDED TO GO WITH EC FOR ALL AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, AS THE NEW ENSO PHASE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. BY NEXT SPRING (AMJ & MJJ 2019), HISTORICAL TRENDS BEGIN TO FAVOR WETNESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST, BUT THEY ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT INCORPORATED INTO THIS SET OF SEASONAL OUTLOOKS. FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM L (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON MAY 17 2018 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 FORECAST RELEASE. $$