PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST WED JANUARY 06 2016 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 16 2016 TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PATTERN FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ANTICIPATED HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN PROJECTS WELL ONTO A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. A MUCH LOWER-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. SUBJECTIVE EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS TROUGH IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED ENERGY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH THE 0Z AND 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS FORECASTING THE MOST OBVIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN ALASKA AND THE FAR WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE. RESIDUAL WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN MAINE, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF BOTH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND A LARGE, AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED MEAN POSITIONS OF THE STORM TRACK AND JET STREAM, AND LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS DUE TO FACTORS SUCH AS 500-HPA RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS (ALASKA), AND WIDESPREAD DRYNESS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS (CONUS). TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF A STABLE, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN, THOUGH SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE PREDICTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS NOTED EARLIER. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 20 2016 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS PREDICTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT, AND (IN MOST CASES) PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. TODAY'S WEEK-2 AUTOMATIC BLENDED TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN REMOVING THE LARGE AREA OF ANTICIPATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO INPUT TOOLS WHICH RELY MORE HEAVILY ON CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES, WHICH CONSIDER OBSERVED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS 45 DAYS. MOST OF THE PAST 45 DAYS INCLUDES THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH OF DECEMBER, PROVIDING A RECENT WARM BIAS IN CALIBRATION TOOLS. SUCH A RAPID REMOVAL OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS DISCOUNTED. AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A 500-HPA RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, INCREASED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE PREDICTED AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DEAMPLIFYING HEIGHT PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDES FAVORS MORE SEASONABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS NOW PREDICT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM TRACK TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST, WITH THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS FARTHEST WEST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE EXPECTATION OF A PATTERN UNDERGOING DE-AMPLIFICATION, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE EAST COAST STORM TRACK SETS UP. FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 21 ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941230 - 19691217 - 19521218 - 19810117 - 19580104 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941230 - 19830119 - 19691218 - 19810118 - 19521217 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 16 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N B UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 20 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$