PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 12 2016 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2016 TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTH TO EASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH LATITUDES WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE AO. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND PART OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2016 DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN FORECAST RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO ALASKA WHILE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE AO INDEX, WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRONGLY NEGATIVE, IS FORECAST BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES TO TREND CLOSER TO ZERO CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF PREDICTED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE, NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST TROUGH. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IS RELATIVELY POOR TODAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THEREFORE, THE WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WEAKLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS CONSISTENT WITH ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SEABOARD CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE THE HIGHEST FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM A PREDICTED NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTER UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC BOTH SUPPORT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 21 ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660125 - 20011225 - 19970114 - 19790101 - 19950102 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660125 - 19970113 - 20011225 - 19530104 - 20001222 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$