CFS Standard Deviation & Spread
Standard deviation is calculated using forecasts from 1981 to 2005. Anomalies are taken as deviations from time average of 24 years that do not include the year of individual target months. Forecast standard deviation is for individual members rather than for 15-member ensemble mean. Regions for SST indices include: Nino1+2 (80W-90W,10S-EQ), Nino3 (150W-90W,5S-5N), Nino34 (170W-120W,5S-5N), Nino4 (160E-150W,5S-5N), Atlantic Hurricance MDR (20W-80,10N-20N).
SSTs (Regional Average)
| Variable |
Monthly |
Seasonal |
| Nino1+2 |
 |
|
| Nino3 |
|
|
| Nino34 |
|
|
| Nino4 |
|
|
| MDR |
|
|
Seasonal Spatial Maps
| |
Forecast |
| Variable\Start month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| SST |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| SSH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| z200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| z700 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| u200-u850 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prec |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| T2m |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NA Prec |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NA T2m |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Observation |
| Variable\Start month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| SST |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| SSH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| z200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| z700 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| u200-u850 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prec |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| T2m |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NA Prec |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NA T2m |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
