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NMME Tech Meeting
April 8, 2011
NCEP, Room 209
5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746

Agenda

08:30AM:  Objectives of the Meeting, and scope of the NMME White Paper (Huang)
  -to discuss and bring convergence on technical issues listed below.
  -to update the NMME White Paper

  • FY11 implementation actions
  • Longer-term plan (system design and resource estimate) to transfer the NMME prediction system to operations.

08:40AM: Overview of the NMME White Paper (Kirtman)

09:00AM: Issue 1:  Readiness of participating US Models for initial implementation in FY11 (Lead: Schubert)
  - Are hindcasts ready? (CFSv.1, CFSv.2, CCSM3, NASA/GEOS, GFDL-CM2)?
  - What can we do now in FY11 by leveraging the current capability?
  - What is the composition of each prediction system in the NMME? For example, is it a minimum requirement that each system be a coupled O-A-L-ice model with data assimilation capability for each/all?
  - What are resource requirements to start FY11 routine NMME forecasts and evaluations?

10:00AM: Issue 2:  Hindcast data storage and user-access  (Lead: Lapenta)
        Option1: NCDC central archive
        Option2: Flexible: hindcast data data can be stored in a central location or in individual group/center depending on individual center’s need and capability
  - NCDC’s role in NMME ( J. Bates)
  - Need to estimate the data size and the resource requirement for different options
  - Need to have estimate for two phases 1) FY11; 2) long-term

11:00AM: Issue 3: Operational forecasts requirements and R2O transition (Lead: van den Dool)
  - Recommendations from CFSv.2 User Assessment Workshop (Higgins)
  - Develop operational requirements:

  • What’s the minimum requirement for skill assessment?
  • How to meet this requirement?
  • How to maintain the system (i.e., transition to operation)?
  - Develop a strategy and cost estimate to incorporate new versions of models

12noon: Lunch

1PM: Issue 4: Design of the NMME prediction system for FY12 and beyond (Lead:  Kinter)
  - What is the composition of each prediction system in the NMME system?
  - Elements include

  • Hindcast length
  • data assimilation
  • initial condition
  • ensemble members
  - Should we follow the EUROSIP standard, so NMME and IMME are consistent?
  - Requirements on documentation of models and data assimilation systems
  - Need to engage users (CPC, regional operations, stakeholders and research community) on their requirements on NMME hindcasts

2PM: Issue 5:  Who will run the models and where will they be run in operations (Lead: Kirtman)
   Option1: all models (hindcasts and real time) are run by NOAA
     Option2: Flexible depending on the need and capability
  - Resource estimate for infrastructure support, computer, human resources for different options and for 1) FY11 pilot project and 2) for FY12 & beyond operations
  - What is the process to apply GAEA? (Anderson?)
  - Key point of contact in each group ?
  - Funding sources and funding mechanism?

3PM: Issue 6: How to measure the progress and value of NMME (Lead: DeWitt)
  -Need to define how to measure the values of NMME

  • Besides CPC, who are other users of NMME?
  • What is the process to engage users
  - Presentation from Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (A. Wood)
  - Need to develop a longer-term strategy to measure the process and value

4PM: Overall Discussion (Anderson, Huang) Issue 7: What are the research foci for FY12 and beyond
  - Need to update the research needs and priorities for the potential FY12 call for proposals.


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Page last modified: April 11, 2011
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