08:40AM: Overview of the NMME White Paper (Kirtman)
09:00AM: Issue 1: Readiness of participating US Models for initial implementation in FY11 (Lead: Schubert)
- Are hindcasts ready? (CFSv.1, CFSv.2, CCSM3, NASA/GEOS, GFDL-CM2)?
- What can we do now in FY11 by leveraging the current capability?
- What is the composition of each prediction system in the NMME? For example, is it a minimum requirement that each system be a coupled O-A-L-ice model with data assimilation capability for each/all?
- What are resource requirements to start FY11 routine NMME forecasts and evaluations?
10:00AM: Issue 2: Hindcast data storage and user-access (Lead: Lapenta)
Option1: NCDC central archive
Option2: Flexible: hindcast data data can be stored in a central location or in individual group/center depending on individual center’s need and capability
- NCDC’s role in NMME ( J. Bates)
- Need to estimate the data size and the resource requirement for different options
- Need to have estimate for two phases 1) FY11; 2) long-term
11:00AM: Issue 3: Operational forecasts requirements and R2O transition (Lead: van den Dool)
- Recommendations from CFSv.2 User Assessment Workshop (Higgins)
- Develop operational requirements:
- Develop a strategy and cost estimate to incorporate new versions of models
- What’s the minimum requirement for skill assessment?
- How to meet this requirement?
- How to maintain the system (i.e., transition to operation)?
1PM: Issue 4: Design of the NMME prediction system for FY12 and beyond (Lead: Kinter)
- What is the composition of each prediction system in the NMME system?
- Elements include
- Should we follow the EUROSIP standard, so NMME and IMME are consistent?
- Hindcast length
- data assimilation
- initial condition
- ensemble members
- Requirements on documentation of models and data assimilation systems
- Need to engage users (CPC, regional operations, stakeholders and research community) on their requirements on NMME hindcasts
2PM: Issue 5: Who will run the models and where will they be run in operations (Lead: Kirtman)
Option1: all models (hindcasts and real time) are run by NOAA
Option2: Flexible depending on the need and capability
- Resource estimate for infrastructure support, computer, human resources for different options and for 1) FY11 pilot project and 2) for FY12 & beyond operations
- What is the process to apply GAEA? (Anderson?)
- Key point of contact in each group ?
- Funding sources and funding mechanism?
3PM: Issue 6: How to measure the progress and value of NMME (Lead: DeWitt)
-Need to define how to measure the values of NMME
- Presentation from Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (A. Wood)
- Besides CPC, who are other users of NMME?
- What is the process to engage users
- Need to develop a longer-term strategy to measure the process and value
4PM: Overall Discussion (Anderson, Huang) Issue 7: What are the research foci for FY12 and beyond
- Need to update the research needs and priorities for the potential FY12 call for proposals.