Latest Monthly Assessment -
Significant changes in the weather pattern are predicted across the Southwest. With the climatological monsoon winding down, a pronounced dry period is expected for most of the region in October. Farther north, across most of California, Nevada, Utah, and the Pacific Northwest, a dry pattern is favored by recent climate model runs. Persistence and/or Intensification of drought, as well as areas of possible Development is favored. In the central and southern Great Plains, climatology and the latest extended-range predictions (days 6-14) tilt toward Persistence/Intensification of drought conditions for most of this region. In southern Texas, however, Improvement and/or Removal is supported. In the East, the anticipated passage of several upper-air troughs enhances the chances of Improvement and/or Removal of drought, both in New England and southern Georgia and adjacent parts of the Florida Panhandle. In central Alabama however, October is typically the driest month of the year, and shorter-range rainfall forecasts (days 1-14) depict sparse precipitation amounts. Therefore, Persistence/Intensification of drought is indicated. Dry conditions are expected to continue over Hawaii and Puerto Rico in October, with a combination of Persistence, Intensification, or drought Development favored.
Forecaster: A. Artusa
Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2014 at 3:00 PM EDT
Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion