Latest Monthly Assessment - The October Drought Outlook is based on initial conditions, short and medium range forecasts, the CPC monthly outlooks, and climatology. During September 2013, drought improvement and removal occurred across the Southwest, parts of the Great Plains, and along the Gulf Coast. Improvement and removal is expected for the lower Mississippi Valley and along the Texas Gulf Coast. Prospects for improvement decrease inland and persistence is forecast for the remainder of Texas and most of the Great Plains. Drought improvement and removal across parts of the northern Rockies, Midwest, and upper Mississippi Valley is based mostly on expected precipitation during the first week of October. Following major improvement during September, persistence is forecast across the remaining long-term drought areas of the Southwest. Recent heavy precipitation and climatology favor removal or improvement of drought across southwest Oregon and extreme northwest California. Precipitation typically does not increase significantly until after October across the remainder of California. Therefore, persistence is forecast for central and southern California. Meanwhile, across the eastern U.S., abnormal dryness exists across the mid-Atlantic with short-term precipitation deficits increasing across the coastal Carolinas. Although small areas of drought development may occur, designation of widespread drought development is not forecast due to uncertainty in the precipitation pattern by the second week of October. Improvement or removal is expected across most of the ongoing drought areas of Alaska. Although the onset of the rainy season is approaching, persistence is expected across Hawaii.

Forecaster: A. Artusa and B. Pugh

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2013 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion