TOOLS USED IN THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK INCLUDED... THE
OFFICIAL CPC LONG-LEAD PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-JANUARY ... THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX PROBABILITY
PROJECTIONS FOR JANUARY ... AND VARIOUS MEDIUM AND SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS AND MODELS SUCH AS THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14
DAY FORECASTS AT http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts
THE OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED ON OCTOBER 30 TO REFLECT THE MAJOR CHANGE IN THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT WAS BRINGING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A WETTER... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE MIDWEST...
LEADING TO IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR DROUGHT RELIEF IN THE MISSOURI-IOWA-
WISCONSIN DROUGHT AREA. THE RECENT INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS DUE TO LATE
OCTOBER RAINS IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA LESSENED THE CHANCES FOR DROUGHT
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION... SO THE FORECAST DROUGHT AREA WAS REMOVED.
STATISTICAL AIDS (SUCH AS THE CAS AND CCA) AND DYNAMICAL AIDS (SUCH AS THE SFM
AND ECHAM 4.5) INDICATE A TILT OF THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL
NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY ACROSS ARIZONA... WESTERN NEW MEXICO... SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA... SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. AS A RESULT... DROUGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS. DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER FORECAST
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DID MATERIALIZE... ACCELERATED BY THE SANTA ANA WIND
EPISODE IN LATE OCTOBER. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND
INCREASED RAINFALL AS WE MOVE INTO WINTER WILL EASE THE FIRE DANGER IN
CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST... BUT SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF IS
NOT EXPECTED BY LATE JANUARY GIVEN THE SEASONAL FORECAST FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER EAST... THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF EITHER
ABOVE OR BELOW-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD HELP TO
EASE THE D1-D3 DROUGHT IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE LONG TERM NATURE
OF THE DROUGHT... IT WOULD TAKE AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO
ELIMINATE THE DROUGHT. THEREFORE... "DROUGHT ONGOING... SOME IMPROVEMENT" IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. FURTHER NORTH... LONG TERM
DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING... CENTRAL MONTANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO. ACROSS WASHINGTON... MUCH OF OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO...
FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EASE D1-D2 DROUGHT. ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER... BECAUSE OF THE MULTI-YEAR NATURE OF THE DROUGHT... THE
DROUGHT WILL BE ONGOING.
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... TWO YEAR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS RANK AMOUNT THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. SINCE MOST
OF THIS AREAS PRECIPITATION OCCURS DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER... IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT
SITUATION. WINTER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD EASE THE IMPACTS CAUSED BY
RECENT DRYNESS. LATE SUMMER DRYNESS AND HEAT HAS RESULTED IN D1-D3 DROUGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA... SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SINCE OCTOBER LAST YEAR RANGE
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THIS AREA. IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... THE LATE SUMMER
DRYNESS WAS IN ADDITION TO RESIDUAL LONG TERM DRYNESS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PUT A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THESE PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES DURING THE LATE FALL
AND EARLY WINTER... BUT RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
WILL BRING SOME RELIEF. THEREFORE... SOME IMPROVEMENT IS DEPICTED IN THE
OUTLOOK. IN THE SOUTHEAST... STATISTICAL AIDS /CAS... CCA... CMP AND SMT/ AND
DYNAMICAL AIDS /SFM AND ECHAM 4.5/ INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF GEORGIA. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY NEGATIVELY AFFECT
FALL AND WINTER AGRICULTURE... DEGRADE PASTURES... REDUCE STREAM FLOWS AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF BRUSH FIRES... BUT IMPACTS WOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR
BEFORE SPRING... SO DROUGHT IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
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