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Climate Prediction Center

 
 
 

November 2003 - January 2004 (Revised)

 

Latest Seasonal Assessment - The outlook was updated on October 30 to reflect a change in the circulation pattern heading into November that will result in a wetter regime for the Midwestern drought areas. In addition... recent rains in Florida and Georgia have somewhat reduced the chances for drought development in this area.

Statistical and dynamical guidance show an increased probability of below- normal precipitation during the November-January period across much of the southwestern U.S. as a result... drought conditions are expected to persist in southern California... southern Nevada... Arizona... much of Utah and western New Mexico. Nevertheless... wildfire danger will diminish in California and elsewhere in the Southwest as temperatures cool and seasonal rains and snow develop. Across much of Montana... Wyoming and southeastern Idaho... hydrological drought improvement will be difficult even with average precipitation across the region during the period. As a result... drought is expected to persist. Some improvement... however... is possible over far western Montana... as well as central Colorado and central New Mexico. Improvement is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest as Fall and early Winter precipitation boost moisture supplies. Long term drought is expected to persist in western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas... while conditions are expected to improve across the eastern Dakotas... central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Precipitation deficits across much of Iowa... southern Wisconsin and northwestern Missouri range from 8 to 12 inches since October 1... 2002. These deficits will be difficult to eradicate... but forecast rains will offer some improvement. Drier than normal conditions are expected across northern Florida and adjacent portions of Georgia... but any significant drought impacts are not likely before Spring.

Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook
 

TOOLS USED IN THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK INCLUDED... THE OFFICIAL CPC LONG-LEAD PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-JANUARY ... THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX PROBABILITY PROJECTIONS FOR JANUARY ... AND VARIOUS MEDIUM AND SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS AND MODELS SUCH AS THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY FORECASTS AT http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts

THE OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED ON OCTOBER 30 TO REFLECT THE MAJOR CHANGE IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT WAS BRINGING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND A WETTER... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR DROUGHT RELIEF IN THE MISSOURI-IOWA- WISCONSIN DROUGHT AREA. THE RECENT INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS DUE TO LATE OCTOBER RAINS IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA LESSENED THE CHANCES FOR DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION... SO THE FORECAST DROUGHT AREA WAS REMOVED.

STATISTICAL AIDS (SUCH AS THE CAS AND CCA) AND DYNAMICAL AIDS (SUCH AS THE SFM AND ECHAM 4.5) INDICATE A TILT OF THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY ACROSS ARIZONA... WESTERN NEW MEXICO... SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. AS A RESULT... DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS. DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DID MATERIALIZE... ACCELERATED BY THE SANTA ANA WIND EPISODE IN LATE OCTOBER. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASED RAINFALL AS WE MOVE INTO WINTER WILL EASE THE FIRE DANGER IN CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST... BUT SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF IS NOT EXPECTED BY LATE JANUARY GIVEN THE SEASONAL FORECAST FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FURTHER EAST... THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD HELP TO EASE THE D1-D3 DROUGHT IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE LONG TERM NATURE OF THE DROUGHT... IT WOULD TAKE AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO ELIMINATE THE DROUGHT. THEREFORE... "DROUGHT ONGOING... SOME IMPROVEMENT" IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. FURTHER NORTH... LONG TERM DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING... CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO. ACROSS WASHINGTON... MUCH OF OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO... FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EASE D1-D2 DROUGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER... BECAUSE OF THE MULTI-YEAR NATURE OF THE DROUGHT... THE DROUGHT WILL BE ONGOING.

ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... TWO YEAR PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANK AMOUNT THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. SINCE MOST OF THIS AREAS PRECIPITATION OCCURS DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER... IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT SITUATION. WINTER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD EASE THE IMPACTS CAUSED BY RECENT DRYNESS. LATE SUMMER DRYNESS AND HEAT HAS RESULTED IN D1-D3 DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA... SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... NORTHERN ILLINOIS... AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SINCE OCTOBER LAST YEAR RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THIS AREA. IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... THE LATE SUMMER DRYNESS WAS IN ADDITION TO RESIDUAL LONG TERM DRYNESS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PUT A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THESE PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES DURING THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER... BUT RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL BRING SOME RELIEF. THEREFORE... SOME IMPROVEMENT IS DEPICTED IN THE OUTLOOK. IN THE SOUTHEAST... STATISTICAL AIDS /CAS... CCA... CMP AND SMT/ AND DYNAMICAL AIDS /SFM AND ECHAM 4.5/ INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF GEORGIA. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY NEGATIVELY AFFECT FALL AND WINTER AGRICULTURE... DEGRADE PASTURES... REDUCE STREAM FLOWS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF BRUSH FIRES... BUT IMPACTS WOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR BEFORE SPRING... SO DROUGHT IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: October 30, 2003
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