Tools used in the Drought Outlook included
the official CPC long-lead precipitation outlook for November-January, the updated CPC
forecast for November, the four-month drought termination and amelioration probabilities, various medium
and short-range forecasts and models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts, and the
soil moisture tools based on the GFS model and the (CAS) Constructed Analogue on Soil moisture.
Over the Southeast, the forecast replaces the area
of improvement with an area of drought ongoing/some improvement over the Florida Panhandle and along the coast
of the Carolina's as rainfall is expected over those regions over the next 10 days but the monthly and seasonal
forecasts indicate drier than normal conditions for those areas. In addition, along the coast of the
Carolina's the soil moisture anomaly change for the next two weeks is expected to be negative and the
probability of relief from tropical systems is decreasing. The area over the Florida Penisula that was
indicating improvement is changed to drought ongoing/some improvement as short term forecasts through day 10
indicate the possibility of above median precipitation while the monthly and seasonal forecasts show drier
than normal conditions likely for the state. Possible relief from tropical systems also becomes much less
likely beyond the end of October for the region. An area of drought development has been added to the
northwestern part of the Florida Penisula. Even though some rain is possible over this area in the shorter
ranges, the November-January forecast indicates a fairly high probability of below normal precipitation for
the region. Given that this region only recently recovered from drought it was felt that drought could
redevelop fairly quickly over the area, especially when La Niña composites for moderate or strong
events are taken into account.
Over the central Plains the area of drought
ongoing /some improvement is changed to improvement over parts of Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Tennessee and western Kentucky as precipitation is likely to be above normal over the next two weeks and
soil moisture anomaly changes are forecast to be mostly positive. The monthly forecast for November and
seasonal forecast for November-January show equal chances for precipitation for the region.
The area of persist over southern New England
will be changed to improve as recent rains in the area have offered some relief and indications for the next
10 days suggest more precipitaton over the region.
For the west, the area of improvement over
California has been shifted a bit to the north near the coast and to the south over the Sierra while over
eastern Nevada and Northern Utah the area indicating improvement has been shifted a little to the south.
An area of developing drought is specified for Arizona, New Mexico, southeast Colorado and the Panhandle
regions of Texas and Oklahoma. This assessment is consistent with the longer range precipitation forecasts
and La Niña composites.