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 HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook Summary
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge
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Latest Seasonal Assessment - Widespread June rainfall over the Plains and Corn Belt continued to improve drought conditions across Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. In contrast, severe to extreme drought expanded across New Mexico and southern Colorado due to somewhat poor coverage of monsoon convection. Abnormal dryness expanded across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and southern Mid-Atlantic due to short term dryness, and abnormally hot conditions over the western States exacerbated ongoing drought conditions. In addition, suppressed convection over the Caribbean basin promoted expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in southern and eastern Puerto Rico.

The seasonal drought outlook valid for July 17 through October 31, 2014 is based on analysis of initial conditions, short-, medium-, and long-range outlooks, and climatology. Climate anomaly composites based on El Niño conditions were also considered, though these impacts typically become more pronounced during the winter, after the outlook period. Decreased soil moisture due to below normal rainfall increases the potential for rapid drought development across parts of the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic States, and the Tennessee Valley. An anticipated wet pattern during the latter half of July, however, may mitigate the development of drought conditions, so no areas of development were included in this outlook. Recent locally heavy rainfall over southeastern Kentucky in addition to this wet forecast may result in removal of D1 conditions. Drought development is favored across southern and southeastern Texas, based on recent below average precipitation and a tilt towards dryness in the 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks. Persistence is forecast across central Texas, while short term forecasts of heavy rainfall along a frontal boundary, as well as enhanced probabilities for above-median precipitation during the seasonal period, increase the potential for drought improvement or removal across far north Texas and the remainder of the Plains. Monsoon convection across the Four Corners states is anticipated to bring areas of localized drought relief. Across the West, drought persistence is forecast through the end of October based on climatological dryness, and additional development is possible over parts of the Northwest due to a forecast continuation of abnormally hot conditions. A dry climatology favors persistence of remaining drought in Molokai, Hawaii, while a low frequency tropical convective climate signal (trending towards El Niño conditions) is anticipated to continue a regime of suppressed convection across the Caribbean, favoring continued drought degradation across Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: A. Allgood

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: Augusts 21, 2014 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion

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Page last modified: July 17, 2014
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