Latest Seasonal Assessment - Widespread, heavy monsoonal rains fell across the Southwest during the past few weeks, leading to significant improvements in regional drought conditions. With the summer monsoon season now winding down, persistence of remaining drought is anticipated over this area. In the Northwest, autumn (especially November and December) typically heralds a return to the rainy season. Areas of drought Improvement and Removal are expected over far northern and western portions of the region, with Persistence anticipated elsewhere. Across most of the Rockies and Great Plains, drought conditions are likely to persist. Short-term exceptions may include southwestern and far southern Texas, where heavy rain is predicted within the next 2 weeks or so. Some of this rain may originate from an area of disturbed weather currently located just west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The potential for late season tropical systems to affect the lower Mississippi Valley offsets climatological drying, resulting in a middle-ground forecast of Improvement. Drought Persistence is anticipated across the Midwest, which has experienced flash drought conditions for the second summer in a row. However, this year's flash drought started significantly later in the growing season, helping to mitigate crop losses. Drought improvement and removal are predicted across most of the central and southeastern interior of Alaska, while drought persistence and development are favored for the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island.

Forecaster: A. Artusa

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 17, 2013 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion