Latest Seasonal Assessment -
During the past 30-days, much of the Four Corners region experienced a continuation of robust monsoon conditions along with beneficial precipitation, while other areas
received subnormal precipitation. The Pacific Northwest, most of California, and western and central Nevada remained fairly dry. Other areas of the country which received
surplus precipitation included northern Kansas, the southern High Plains, far southern Texas, and much of Georgia and adjacent parts of the Florida Panhandle. Eastern and
southern Puerto Rico, and Hawaii continue to dry out. For the upcoming October-November-December (OND) 2014 season, a wet pattern is expected to continue across the
Southwest, the southern third of California, the southern Great Plains region, and the eastern Gulf Coast states. This is based on such factors as the CPC 1-month and
3-month precipitation outlooks, various dynamical and statistical models, and the expectation of a weak El Niño which is often characterized by an active subtropical jet
stream across the southern tier of the contiguous U.S. However, the Pacific Northwest, and northern and central sections of California and Nevada, and much of western Utah
are predicted to have elevated odds of below-median precipitation during the OND period, based in part on the factors noted above. For California, historical composites of
weak El Niño's favor enhanced odds of above-median precipitation across the southern third of the state, with much less support for surplus precipitation farther north.
Therefore, improvement or removal of drought is anticipated from southern sections of California and Nevada eastward across the Southwest into the central and southern
Great Plains, as well as the eastern Gulf Coast states. Persistence/intensification of drought is favored over the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California, and
most of the central Inter-mountain region. Persistence and/or intensification of drought are also favored over Hawaii and Puerto Rico during autumn.
Forecaster: A. Artusa
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 16, 2014 at 8:30 AM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion