No major changes to the overall forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial seasonal drought outlook (SDO) release on 15 February. Drought development due to low snow cover and abnormal warmth across the northern tier has begun at an unusually rapid pace for the time of year, and this updated SDO depicts a broader swath of development over Montana than the initial release, in line with the March monthly drought outlook. Drought development areas across wouthern and western Texas were also updated for consistency with the monthly outlook. Moderate drought has developed over eastern North Carolina, where development was not indicated on the initial seasonal release. Since the monthly outlook predicts this drought area to be removed by the end of the month, there is no conflict with the seasonal. Drought forecast areas were updated to reflect the latest USDM valid 27 February 2024.
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Updated Seasonal Assessment -
No major changes to the overall forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial seasonal drought outlook (SDO) release on 15 February. Drought development due to low snow cover and abnormal warmth across the northern tier has begun at an unusually rapid pace for the time of year, and this updated SDO depicts a broader swath of development over Montana than the initial release, in line with the March monthly drought outlook. Drought development areas across wouthern and western Texas were also updated for consistency with the monthly outlook. Moderate drought has developed over eastern North Carolina, where development was not indicated on the initial seasonal release. Since the monthly outlook predicts this drought area to be removed by the end of the month, there is no conflict with the seasonal. Drought forecast areas were updated to reflect the latest USDM valid 27 February 2024.
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Latest Seasonal Assessment -
Typical for an El Niño winter, major drought improvements occurred across the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast since December 2023. These improvements, albeit less in magnitude, extended westward to the southern to central Great Plains and Southwest. Based on the April-May-June (AMJ) precipitation outlook, additional drought improvement or removal is forecast across the central Great Plains and middle to lower Mississippi Valley. AMJ is an increasingly wet time of year for the central Great Plains which was another factor in this seasonal drought outlook.
Drought has either expanded or intensified throughout the Upper Mississippi Valley during the 2023-24 winter. Broad-scale persistence is forecast for this region given the long-term drought and the AMJ outlook calling for equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. However, forecast confidence is low across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin where heavy precipitation (rain and snow) may occur during late March. Drought persistence or development is forecast for North Dakota, much of Montana, and northern Idaho due to the lack of winter snowfall and absence of a robust wet signal in the seasonal precipitation tools. Consistent with an increasingly drier climatology later this spring and the AMJ precipitation outlook, persistence is forecast for Oregon and Washington.
Forecast confidence is high for development across parts of the southern high Plains as short-term dryness increases and the AMJ outlook favors below-normal precipitation. Persistence is likely for ongoing drought areas across Texas. A much drier climatology later this spring supports broad-scale persistence for the Southwest.
Alaska is expected to remain drought-free through the end of June. As dryness associated with El Niño lingers into the spring, persistence or development is forecast across Hawaii. Puerto Rico is likely to have continued drought removal, while the U.S. Virgin Islands remain drought-free.
Forecaster: Brad Pugh
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 18, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion
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