Latest Seasonal Assessment - The protracted drought across the interior Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic, continually depicted on the Drought Monitor since February 2007 in a few areas, has improved in recent months. The region should receive near or above normal rainfall through the first half of May 2008, but there is no discernable tilt of the odds concerning precipitation trends for late May - July 2008, and given the typical increase in water demand and evaporative losses as temperatures warm through late spring and summer, significant hydrologic drought relief is not expected through the end of July. In spite of the likelihood of continuing short term relief, substantial long-term precipitation deficits (and thus hydrologic drought) remain entrenched across the southern Appalachians, and are expected to persist through July 2008. The greatest likelihood for improvement exists in Virginia and the Tennessee Valley. Precipitation should average near normal through the first half of May 2008 in southwestern Florida, but the typical seasonal increase in precipitation during May - July is expected to improve conditions in the state's lingering area of drought. Farther west, a similar climatological trend toward wetter weather, in addition to the above-normal precipitation expected for the next week, should improve drought conditions in the northern and central high Plains. However, odds favor persistence or development across the southern high Plains, west and south Texas, and the Southwest. A small area of some improvement is forecast for south-central Texas due to rainfall expected during the upcoming week. Drought has recently developed in the foothills of Sierra and should persist due to a dry climatology. In Hawaii, the wet season has ended. Therefore, persistence or development is forecast for parts of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

Forecaster: B. Pugh & R. Schechter

Next Outlook issued: May 15, 2008 at 8:30 AM EDT