Latest Seasonal Assessment - The Drought Outlook for May 3 – July 31, 2012 is based on short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts, initial conditions, and climatology. Since the release of the previous Drought Outlook issued on April 19, 2012, a slight expansion of drought occurred in the Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley while drought conditions intensified across the interior Southeast. In contrast, drought improvement is noted across southern New England and southeast Florida. Since precipitation signals are weak on the seasonal time scale, this outlook is based primarily on short to medium range forecasts and climatology. Some improvement is forecast along the East Coast with improvement most likely across the south-central Florida peninsula. The protracted drought across Georgia and South Carolina is expected to persist. Persistence is also forecast in northeast Minnesota, but prospects for improvement increase farther south in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Some improvement can be expected across the drought areas of the central and southern high Plains, while drought is expected to persist or expand across parts of the West along with western and south-central Texas. A drier climatology supports persistence in Hawaii.

Forecaster: B. Pugh

Next Outlook issued: May 17, 2012 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion