Latest Seasonal Assessment - The weather pattern for much of the summer has featured a subtropical ridge across the southern tier of the U.S. and an active storm track across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Anomalously warm temperatures and suppressed convective coverage underneath the subtropical ridge has led to increasing drought conditions from the mid-Atlantic and the Southeast westward to the Southern Plains. In the Upper Mississippi Valley, several episodes of thunderstorms this summer has resulted in beneficial relief to protracted drought conditions, although recent dryness in the Dakotas has led to a small area of moderate drought in northern South Dakota. An active late-July and early August monsoon has reduced drought coverage in the Southwest, but since August there has been little drought relief in northern Arizona. Climatologically dry conditions have resulted in a persistence of moderate to severe drought across the Great Basin and the Northern Rockies, while moderate to exceptional drought continues across Hawaii. The forecast for the SON 2010 season calls for drought improvement for the Northeast, the coastal mid-Atlantic region, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Dakotas and the southeast. Drought is expected to persist in the West, Southwest, the Southern Plains and Hawaii. While some improvement is forecast for northern Louisiana and the interior mid-Atlantic, drought is also forecast to develop or persist in the lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys.

Forecasters: A. Loconto and R. Tinker

Next Outlook issued: September 16, 2010 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion